S&P 500 Forecast – Stock Market Breaks Down Again

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 24.10.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 continues to see a significant amount of downward pressure, as it looks like we are struggling with the idea of hanging on to stock market gains. The S&P 500 recently broke down below the 200-Day EMA, which of course attracts a certain amount of attention. Furthermore, the market has broken down below the 50% Fibonacci level, so keep in mind the possibility of a move down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

It’s not until we turn around and break above the 200-Day EMA that I think traders will become a little bit more bullish, but at this point I think you should also keep in mind that we are in the midst of the earnings season for Q3, so that in and of itself will make the markets very noisy. Beyond that, we also have seen interest rates rise early in the morning, and therefore it continues to put downward pressure on stocks. Yes, we have had several negative candlesticks in a row, and we may be getting ready for some type of bounce, but that bounce will almost certainly be sold into unless of course we get some type of huge change in attitude.

Breaking down below the 4200 level, then the 61.8% Fibonacci level, would be a very negative turn of events. This could open up more of a “FOMO trade” to the downside, as it will accelerate selling in general. It’s worth noting that markets are focusing on a lot of different things at the same time, and not just earnings. In fact, the geopolitical tensions are a major downside, and of course higher interest rates don’t help the situation either.

Ultimately, we are in a very dangerous time right now because there are so many different crosscurrents going on that it’s difficult to get a gauge on what the market is focusing on at any given moment. From a technical analysis standpoint, we are at an area where you would expect to see a certain amount of buying coming back into the market, but you need to let the market prove itself before you put your money on the line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.