S&P 500 Forecast – Stock Markets Have Wild Ride on Monday

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 14.03.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has initially rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday but gave back gains rather quickly. I think we will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, as the 3800 level underneath continues to offer significant support. On the other hand, if we do rally from here, I think the 4000 level is an area that a lot of people will have to pay attention to as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and also where we see both the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA indicators.

I like the idea of fading short-term rallies, and that certainly has worked out so far during the day on Monday. However, if we do turn around and break down significantly, meaning that we close below the 3800 level, I think that opens up a move down to the 3600 level underneath where we had bounced from back in October.

Either way, I think the stock markets again will continue to be very noisy as we are now starting to deal with the fallout of the fact that the federal regulators had to come in and bail out Silicon Valley Bank. This of course is a major bank for technology startups, and technology companies. A lot of people are worried about contagion, and that of course will have a major influence on how stocks behave. This is especially true considering that they were already weak to begin with, so I think a lot of back and forth continues to be the major move in the short term.

I think volatility will continue to be very important, therefore you need to be very cautious with your position size as the volatility will continue to be a major problem for traders to deal with. Position sizing will be crucial at this point in time, because these massive swings and panic moves in both directions can certainly cause a lot of damage to your trading account if you are overexposed. If you do choose to trade the market, perhaps getting involved in options or at least smaller CFD positions might be the best way to go.

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