S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Gets Whiplash From CPI

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has been all over the place during the trading session on Thursday as we initially tried to rally during Asian and European sessions, but then gave back gains as the Americans came on board. This was exacerbated by the CPI number coming out much hotter than anticipated, printing a 0.4% month over month reading instead of the expected 0.2%. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I do think that the downside is probably where we eventually go.

We have earnings season starting next week, with a couple of companies reporting on Friday. Pay special attention to the forward guidance because it’s very likely that will determine where stocks go next. The Federal Reserve is almost certainly going to have to continue to tighten, but quite frankly that should not be a huge surprise.

At this point, I do believe that we go down to the 3500 level, perhaps even the 3400 level. Any rally at this point in time I look at with suspicion, and I think we would need a break above the 3800 level. The 3800 level is an area where we have seen a lot of resistance, and of course we have the 50-Day EMA sloping lower and getting ready to attach itself to the 3800 level.

In general, candlesticks like this normally means that were going to see even more volatility than anything else, and therefore I think you need to be cautious with your position size, but I’m hoping for a rally that I can start fading at the first signs of exhaustion. However, if we break down below the bottom of the candle, then it’s likely that we could start to see another short trade play out as well.

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 14.10.22

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