S&P 500 & US Indexes Fundamental Analysis – December 16, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The S&P 500  is trading in the green this morning taking cues from the recovery of the European markets after Mario Draghi commented on stimulus and  noted a better than expected recovery. The Fed meeting will begin today as traders will begin to ease off on positions and wait for Yellen’s decision tomorrow. The index is trading at 2021.94 up 10 points before the opening. There may not be a Santa Claus rally underway on Wall Street, but the markets could get what they’ve been waiting for all year on Wednesday: A rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

At the conclusion of its two-day policy-setting meeting in the middle of the week, the central bank is widely expected to announce a 0.25% increase in short-term interest rates. The move has been closely charted in global markets after a somewhat surprising decision in September to keep rates steady – Wall Street had been mostly split at that point after tumult caused by China’s devaluation of the yuan, and debt problems in Greece.

However, after months of additional data on the U.S. economy, many on Wall Street expect the Fed to feel comfortable that it’s close to meeting its dual mandate of full employment and price stability after two robust months of job creation, and inflation that has been creeping its way closer to the 2% target.

A weak ending to 2015 and the expectation of improving profit growth in 2016 will set the stage for a single-digit gain in U.S. stocks next year, a modest forecast at least by recent standards, according to strategists polled by Reuters.

But even that fairly circumspect outlook faces significant risks, including rising U.S. interest rates and a lackluster global economy, the strategists said.

The S&P 500 is forecast to end 2016 at 2,207, up 10 percent from Friday’s close of 2,012.37 and 5 percent higher than where it is expected to round off this year, according to the median forecast of 46 strategists polled by Reuters in the past week.  

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole. Please click on the links to find the most recent reports for this asset.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 15 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Dec 17 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Dec 17 11:30 UK GBP 0.7bn 1.25% Nov 2032 I/L Gilt

Dec 17 19:00 US USD 16bn 5-year TIPS auction

Dec 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ on 29 Dec, plus BTP/CCTeus on 30 Dec

Dec 23 US Holds 2-year FRN auction