S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – S&P 500 Struggles

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 05-02-2024

S&P 500 Weekly Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 went back and forth during the course of the trading week as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, the market has been a little overdone for some time and therefore I think it probably makes quite a bit a sense that we do pullback. The jobs number of course had been a bit over the top for Wall Street, and therefore we did pull back significantly on Friday. However, I see the 4800 level as an area of interest, followed by the 4600 level as a major support level.

Just above, the 5000 level of course is going to be important, as it is psychologically significant and of course the market will celebrate that. Whether or not there is a lot of profit-taking in that area remains to be seen but it would not surprise me at all. In this environment, we see a market that just is running on momentum, and you should always keep in mind that the S&P 500 is really just seven stocks, not 500. In other words, there are essentially 493 that you can throw away.

That’s the reality of passive investing, everybody owns the same companies. In this environment, if the interest rates start to drop again the S&P 500 will certainly go higher. At this point, I have no interest in shorting the market, because quite frankly it’s not even designed to go down otherwise it would be equally weighted. With strong jobs numbers, there has been a bit of concern that the Federal Reserve will wait to loosen monetary policy, but it seems like Wall Street has a knack for coming out with a reason why they won’t.

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