S&P500 Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Three Waves Lower?

Almost a month ago, see here, we asked the question if a significant top was forming for the S&P500 (SPX). Using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) we found,

“Although the index has not dropped below the critical $4458 level … we must now be mindful that either the red W-iv to ideally $4300+/-25 is underway, or the blue W-B counter-trend rally has ended, and the index is working lower to $2700-2900. Please note the upside levels have been on our radar since October last year. See here when we were looking for the index to reach SPX4350-4650.”

On August 18, the index bottomed out at $4335, very close to the red W-iv target zone, shown in Figure 1 below. On the daily chart, the decline since the July $4707 high counts best as “three waves down,” which means that the most bullish possibility cannot yet be eliminated: the decline was a correction, red W-iv?, and that correction is over. Thus, from this perspective, the Bears still need at least one more low to turn the decline into a more significant impulse down.

Or Five Waves Lower?

However, there’s another possibility. Namely, the price action encompassed by the orange box in Figure 1 is highlighted in Figure 2 below. Using this chart, we found in our last update the SPX had to

“rally above $4443, without dropping below today’s low again, to indicate early the red W-ii/b is underway, with confirmation above $4490. If it stalls around $4425+/5 and then drops below today’s low, we should expect $4370-80 before the index can retry its multi-day “dead cat bounce.”

Fast forward, and the index stalled at $4421 that day, bottomed out at $4335 the next, and rallied by last Thursday above $4443, confirming the anticipated EWP pattern. Given that the decline lasted three weeks, a three-day bounce appears too short to allow for a more proportionate counter-trend rally. See the blue and red time cycles in Figure 2.

Thus, Thursday’s $4458 high can be counted as green W-a, Friday’s $4356 low as green W-b, and now the index is working on green W-c of red W-ii/b to ideally $4500+/-25. From there, the index must break first below the $4458 high, followed by the August 18 low to usher in red W-iii/c to ~$4075.

If, however, the index rallies through $4525, towards the $4550-4600 region, and holds above $4458 on any pullback, then chances increase the recent month-long decline was indeed only a correction, and we should look for $4790+/-10 to be reached before the Bears have another chance.

Regardless, we can conclude, “As long as Friday’s $4356 low holds, we should look higher for at least $4500+/-25. Above the $4550-4600 region, and $4790+/-10 is likely next.”