SUI Slides 17% After Reaching All-Time High – Currently Tests Key Ascending Support

SUI Price Analysis

SUI exhibits a textbook five-wave Elliott Wave impulse on the daily chart, with the current price action positioned within Wave (v). Following a breakout from a triangular consolidation pattern in early November, the price surged into its ending Wave (v), creating a rising channel that defines its trajectory.

On Jan. 5 SUI made a new all-time high of $5.37 interacting with the channel’s resistance. This caused a downturn of 17%, as the price fell to $4.50 area. The ascending channel’s support was retested, and it looks like it will hold for now. However, there aren’t any major bullish signs on the daily chart, raising questions on the further price progression.

As reflected in the RSI, momentum shows divergence—the price has reached higher highs while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends downward. This divergence hints at a potential loss of bullish momentum, often signaling the likelihood of consolidation or a minor corrective pullback before any further advances.

The structure remains bullish as long as prices stay above the channel’s lower boundary, currently near $4.50. This level also coincides with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, making it a pivotal support for the ongoing uptrend.

But if the price fails to hold on to the current support retest this will imply that the whole uptrend since August last year ended and SUI is entering a major correction. The distinguishing factor here is how the ascending channel is counted – whether its a wave 4 with one more push to the upside or is the ending diagonal suggesting that its wave 5 ended.

SUI Price Prediction

Zooming into the 1-hour chart, SUI is consolidating within the confines of a rising channel. Wave (v) appears to be subdivided into smaller impulsive structures, with recent price action suggesting the completion of subwave (iii). The subsequent retracement aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $4.49, marking a critical short-term support.

Two scenarios dominate the short-term outlook:

Bullish Continuation: A bounce from $4.49 could propel the price above $5.37, the local peak of subwave (iii). A breakout here would likely target the psychological level of $6.00, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave (v). Sustained momentum could extend this rally further into the $6.20-$6.50 range.

Bearish Correction: A breakdown below $4.49 would invalidate the immediate bullish structure, opening the door for a deeper retracement toward $3.95-$4.00. This area corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the entire Wave (v) and serves as a strong demand zone.

By looking closer at the price action within the ascending channel we can see a choppy and indecisive movement, usually indicating consolidation. Its ascending nature is what’s instilling confusion as it could also be interpreted as an uptrend continuation.

This is why a breakout or a bounce from the ascending support will provide further insight into the next primary trend.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $5.37 (recent high).
• Major Resistance: $6.00 (upper boundary of rising channel and 1.618 Fibonacci extension).
• Immediate Support: $4.49 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Support: $3.95-$4.00 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Zone for Reversal: A sustained break below $3.95 invalidates the bullish outlook and could target $3.50 or lower.

Conclusion

SUI is poised at a critical juncture, with its bullish momentum intact but showing signs of slowing. Traders should watch key Fibonacci levels and the rising channel boundaries closely for confirmation of either continuation toward $6.00 or a deeper corrective phase toward $4.00. The RSI divergence across time frames underscores the importance of monitoring volume and momentum shifts to anticipate the next decisive move.