Technical Check: Important CHF Pairs

USD/CHF

While another bounce from four month old descending trend-line support propelled the USDCHF towards marking fresh fortnightly high, 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – November 2015 upside, near 0.9700, might confine the pair’s immediate advance. Should the pair clears 0.9700 mark on a closing basis, the 0.9790 and the 200-day SMA level of 0.9825 are likely upside numbers that it needs to break in order to visit 0.9850 mark resistance mark, comprising 38.2% Fibo. Moreover, pair’s successful break above 0.9850 enables it to aim for 1.0000 psychological magnet with 0.9945-50 being an intermediate halt. Given the pair’s inability to surpass 0.9700 mark, corrective moves can drag it to 0.9580 and the 61.8% Fibo level of 0.9550 before making it re-test the mentioned trend-line support of 0.9500. If the pair drops below 0.9500, also clears the 0.9475 support, it can quickly drop to 0.9400 and the 0.9330 levels during further downside.

EUR/CHF

EURCHF’s recovery from four-month old ascending trend-line was recently capped by a short-term downward slanting line, indicating the renewed downside pressure towards 1.0860 immediate support, clearing which the mentioned trend-line support, at 1.0845, becomes an important level for the pair trader to watch. If the pair drops below 1.0845, it can be fetched to December 2015 lows of 1.0750 while further downside below 1.0750 indicates its test to 1.0730 and the 1.0680 levels. On the upside, immediate descending resistance-line, at 1.0910, could hold the pair’s near-term rise captive, breaking which 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its December – February up-move, near 1.0925, and the 1.0960, a two-month old trend-line resistance, may confine its following advance. Given the pair’s sustained break above 1.0960, it becomes capable enough to surpass the 1.1000 mark and can rally to 38.2% Fibo level of 1.1030.

GBP/CHF

Even as the medium-term descending trend-channel support triggered the GBPCHF bounce, the pair presently find it difficult to surpass the 1.3725-30 horizontal support-turned-resistance, signaling a pullback towards 1.3530 immediate support. If the pair drops below 1.3530, recent lows around 1.3415 and the channel support of 1.3330 become consecutive supports for it to clear, which if broken can fetch the pair prices to 100% FE of its February month downside, near 1.3250. Alternatively, pair’s closing break above 1.3725-30 resistance, can trigger its upside to 1.3830 and the 50-day SMA level of 1.3940 while further upside beyond 1.3940 is likely being capped by the mentioned channel’s resistance-line, at 1.4100 now. Should the pair manage to surpass 1.4100 chances of its rally towards 1.4315-20 can’t be denied.

AUD/CHF

Following its reversal from 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of August – December 2015 upside, the AUDCHF seems heading towards 0.7455-60 resistance area before challenging the 0.7550-60 horizontal mark, comprising December 2015 and March 2016 highs. Should the pair successfully breaks the 0.7560, it can quickly head towards 61.8% FE of its February – March rally, near 0.7650, prior to targeting the March 2015 highs around 0.7650. Meanwhile, pair’s U-turn from the current levels might have to drop below 23.6% Fibo level of 0.7310 prior to testing the 0.7260 and the 100-day SMA level of 0.7200 mark. If at all the pair drops below 0.7200, the 38.2% Fibo level, at 0.7160, again comes into play, clearing which it can drop to 0.7090 and the 50% Fibo level of 0.7045.

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