The Day Ahead: Markets Watch Alphabet, Nasdaq for Direction

Market Overview

U.S. stock futures are slightly lower Thursday morning following two strong sessions. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all gained over 1% Wednesday, though each index closed well off intraday highs. The Dow had surged more than 1,100 points at one point before paring back. Optimism over potential easing in U.S.-China trade tensions drove the move. President Trump indicated a softer stance on tariffs, and Treasury Secretary Bessent referenced the potential for a “big deal” with Beijing.

Equity markets also got a boost after Trump clarified he has “no intention” of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, helping settle Fed-related concerns.

Overnight, IBM dropped more than 7% despite topping Q1 estimates, while Chipotle (CMG) fell after posting its first same-store sales decline since 2020. On the upside, ServiceNow (NOW) and Texas Instruments (TXN) both moved higher following strong prints. Nasdaq futures lead modest pre-market declines.

Key Economic Releases

Thursday’s calendar is front-loaded with data due before the U.S. open:

• Weekly Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT): For week ending April 19

• Durable Goods Orders (12:30 GMT): March

• Existing Home Sales (14:00 GMT): March

All three reports carry potential to impact sentiment, especially durable goods as a gauge of business investment and home sales as a consumer confidence proxy.

Notable Earnings

Several large caps and sector influencers are reporting today. Key names before the bell include:

• American Airlines (AAL): -$0.66 EPS est.

• PepsiCo (PEP): $1.49 EPS est.

• Procter & Gamble (PG): $1.52 EPS est.

• Merck (MRK): $2.14 EPS est.

• Union Pacific (UNP): $2.74 EPS est.

• Dow (DOW): -$0.01 EPS est.

After the close, attention turns to Alphabet (GOOGL). Analysts expect Q1 EPS of $2.01 on $89.2B revenue. The stock is down 20% YTD as ad-related macro risks and antitrust overhangs weigh. Results will be closely watched for ad trends and AI commentary. Intel (INTC) and T-Mobile (TMUS) also report after the bell.

Central Bank Activity

• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at 21:00 GMT. Market participants will monitor his tone for any clues on inflation persistence or rate outlook, especially following Powell-related headlines earlier this week.

Pre-Opening Outlook

Despite a two-day rally, traders face a packed Thursday with high-impact earnings and economic releases. Pre-market softness suggests caution into Alphabet’s report and tariff uncertainty. Fed commentary from Kashkari could sway sentiment into the close.

With major indexes still range-bound and earnings providing mixed signals, market tone at the open will depend heavily on data outcomes and forward guidance from mega-caps.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.