Thursday’s CPI report for June is expected to show continued cooling of inflation, potentially reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Economists predict a 0.1% month-over-month increase and a 3.1% year-over-year rise. Core CPI is anticipated to be 0.2% higher than May and up 3.4% annually. The report follows Fed Chair Powell’s recent testimony, where he suggested a more balanced approach to economic risks. Key areas to watch include shelter and medical care services. The report’s impact on markets could be significant, as both stocks and bonds have rallied in July.
The European Commission has accepted Apple’s commitment to open its NFC tap-and-go payments technology to rivals, ending a four-year antitrust investigation. This decision allows European developers to enable tap-and-go payments for various uses within their iOS apps. Apple’s offer, valid for 10 years, addresses competition concerns over access to NFC payments for third-party mobile wallet developers in the EEA.
HubSpot shares fell 12% after reports that Alphabet will not proceed with acquiring the software company. Talks between Alphabet and HubSpot earlier this year did not advance to detailed discussions. Alphabet and HubSpot have not commented. Regulatory pressures have impacted recent tech mergers, including Amazon’s and Microsoft’s deals. HubSpot has seen rapid revenue growth, while Alphabet’s growth has slowed. Despite the setback, HubSpot’s market cap remains at $25 billion.
U.S. stock futures are edging lower on Wednesday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notched new all-time highs. The S&P 500 is on a seven-day winning streak, its best run since 2013. Costco and WD-40 saw after-hours gains. All eyes are on a key inflation report due Thursday, which could shape expectations for a September rate cut. PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and Conagra are set to report earnings before the bell.
Treasury yields remained stable as investors anticipated upcoming inflation reports and digested Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments. The dollar saw minor movement, with markets pricing in a high chance of a September rate cut. Gold prices strengthened for the third consecutive session, buoyed by a weaker dollar and expectations of potential rate cuts. All three markets showed cautious positioning ahead of the Consumer Price Index report, which could provide crucial insights into the Fed’s future interest rate decisions.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.