The Bureau of Economic Analysis projected a 1.6% annual GDP growth for Q1, down from 3.4% in Q4. A revised estimate, expected Thursday, is likely to show growth between 1.3% and 1.5%. Analysts suggest the data will indicate moderating but not weakening activity. Core PCE data for April, due Friday, is expected at +0.3%, highlighting the significance of core inflation metrics emphasized by JP Morgan fixed-income experts.
U.S. stock futures are lower early Thursday as Salesforce shares fell 16% on a revenue miss and weak guidance. American Eagle Outfitters also dropped 10% after missing revenue forecasts. Investors await weekly jobless claims and GDP data. Key economic data this week includes the PCE price index report. Earnings from Best Buy, Dollar General, Dell Technologies, Costco, Gap, and Nordstrom are expected Thursday.
Wall Street analysts are generally positive about Dollar General’s upcoming Q1 earnings report, with a consensus Buy rating. UBS Global Research analyst Michael Lasser expects the company to demonstrate continued sales progress despite challenges like timing shifts, unfavorable weather, and higher labor costs. Analysts forecast Q1 earnings of $1.57 per share, a 32.9% decline year-over-year, with revenue projected at $9.9 billion, a 6.5% increase.
U.S. Treasury yields increased on Thursday as investors evaluated economic conditions and a weak five-year note auction. The 10-year yield rose over 7 basis points to 4.614%, and the 2-year yield climbed 2 basis points to 4.975%. The poor auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3, contributed to the rise. Investors are also awaiting economic data, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and remarks from Fed officials for insights on future interest rate moves.
Gold prices fell for a second session on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields climbed ahead of key inflation data. The stronger dollar, up 0.5%, made gold less attractive to non-dollar holders. Benchmark 10-year bond yields remained near multi-week highs. Investors anticipate a prolonged high-interest-rate environment, shifting focus to U.S. yields. Gold has dropped over $100 since its May 20 record high. Traders await the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, due Friday, for further rate hike insights.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.