The ‘triple-witching’ event will see $5.5 trillion in options expire, prompting investors to adjust positions and causing market volatility. This quarter’s expiration coincides with index rebalancing and low implied volatility on S&P 500 options, with a significant impact from Nvidia and other AI-linked stocks. Experts predict increased market gyrations, particularly during the final trading hour, as large expiries force dealers to make strategic decisions. The disparity between expiring call and put options highlights growing demand for upside exposure.
S&P 500 futures rose slightly Friday after briefly surpassing 5,500. All three major averages are on track for weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.8%, Nasdaq up 0.2%, and Dow up 1.4%. Nvidia dropped 3.5%, leading the tech sector down, but remains up over 160% year-to-date. Investors await PMI readings and existing home sales data. Despite signs of an overextended market, experts suggest a rebalancing rather than a crash, as AI-driven valuations adjust.
Nuveen’s Saira Malik suggests tech stocks may face a short-term pullback due to overbought conditions. Despite this, Malik sees significant upside for Nvidia, which is driving the market and remains reasonably priced compared to the semiconductor industry. Nvidia’s shares dropped 3.54% after reaching a 52-week high but are up 164% this year.
Gilead Sciences’ experimental HIV prevention shot, lenacapavir, proved 100% effective in a late-stage trial, with none of the nearly 2,000 women contracting HIV. Following these results, the independent data monitoring committee recommended offering the treatment to all study participants. This success brings Gilead closer to introducing a new form of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), potentially available by late 2025. Gilead’s shares rose 7% on the news. Further trials and FDA approval are pending before market introduction.
U.S. Treasury yields slightly decreased Friday as economic data hinted at a slowing economy. The 10-year yield fell to 4.2302%, and the 2-year yield dropped to 4.7130%. Gold prices rose for a second week due to Middle East tensions and potential Fed rate cuts, with prices holding above $2,300. Crude oil futures declined, influenced by higher interest rate prospects in the U.S. and Asia, despite a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories supporting prices.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.