Toncoin Analysis Followup: TON Price Prepares for 40% Boom in August

Toncoin (TON) is one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies as of Aug. 19, rising by nearly 9% in the last 24 hours compared to the crypto market’s 3% decline in the same period.

TON’s price behavior over the past few weeks aligns with a classic Bump-and-Run Reversal (BARR) setup. In this setup, a lead-in phase culminates in a sharp downturn (bump) followed by a recovery and eventual breakout (run).

The BARR Reversal pattern, as discussed in FXEmpire’s analysis here, is often seen as a precursor to significant upward momentum, which TON has been demonstrating since mid-August 2024.

Technical Analysis: BARR Breakout Confirms Bullish Bias

TON’s price entered the “Run” phase of the BARR pattern around Aug. 18, coinciding with a sustained breakout above the declining trendline that had previously capped its recovery attempts. This breakout was accompanied by an increase in trading volume, reinforcing the bullish case.

The daily chart reveals TON trading above its 50-day (red) and 200-day (blue) exponential moving averages (EMAs), which have started to slope upward—a sign of building bullish momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level, indicating that buying pressure is still prevalent despite short-term overbought conditions.

A continuation of this momentum could see TON revisit the $9.50 level—a 40% rise from its current price—given the height of the BARR pattern’s bump phase. The price target aligns with the resistance seen in early July 2024, which could act as a significant level to watch.

Fundamental Catalysts: Binance Listing and Injective Integration

From a fundamental perspective, TON’s adoption has been bolstered by two major developments.

On Aug. 15, 2024, Binance listed Toncoin, which improved its liquidity and accessibility to a broader range of investors.

Meanwhile, on Aug. 14, 2024, decentralized finance protocol Injective announced that it had integrated with the TON blockchain, Toncoin’s parent ledger. This integration allows TON-based assets to be bridged and utilized within Injective’s ecosystem, including in its decentralized applications (dApps).

Both announcements preceded a TON’s price rise.

On-Chain Analysis: TON Supply Distribution Hints at Continued Accumulation

On-chain data further supports the bullish outlook for TON. As of August 19, 2024, the percentage of TON held by addresses with 100,000 to 1,000,000 coins (black line) has steadily declined, indicating a possible redistribution of tokens from large holders (whales) to smaller holders. This trend often suggests that larger holders are taking profits while smaller investors continue accumulating.

Meanwhile, the percentage of TON held by addresses with 10,000 to 100,000 coins (green line) has seen a consistent increase, reflecting strong buying interest among mid-sized investors. This shift in supply distribution often precedes bullish price action, as it signals a broadening base of holders willing to support higher prices.