Toncoin Price Analysis August 2024: Rising Wedge, TON Whales, And More

Toncoin (TON) ended July 2024 in pain, dropping approximately 12% amid a broader decline in the cryptocurrency market. It continues declining in August, falling another 2.5% in the month’s first two daily sessions.

This downturn primarily stemmed from the fading impact of Donald Trump’s pro-crypto keynote at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville. Adding to the negative sentiment, Kamala Harris, Trump’s rival for the United States presidential chair, gained a lead in key state polls.

Additionally, decreasing odds of interest rate cuts in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting further exacerbated the Toncoin and the broader crypto market selloff.

Will Toncoin rebound in August 2024? Let’s explore this from the perspective of its technical, on-chain, and fundamental indicators.

TON Technical Analysis August 2024: Rising Wedge Breakdown Underway

A look at the TON/USDT daily chart reveals a classic rising wedge breakdown, confirmed by the price breaking below its lower trendline with moderate trading volumes.

As a rule, the primary downside target for a falling wedge breakdown is determined by measuring the maximum distance between its upper and lower trendline and adding the output to the breakdown point.

That brings TON’s price downside target for August 2024 to around $5. Interestingly, this level aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous significant low.

Nonetheless, there’s a catch.

The ongoing rising wedge breakdown is accompanying declining trading volumes, suggesting a lack of interest among traders about the move. That said, TON is facing downside pressure but its bearish bias may exhaust ahead of reaching its rising wedge target.

Instead, TON’s price may attempt to rebound from interim support levels, namely its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) around $5.61. This level aligns with TON’s 0.382 Fib level.

Conversely, a rebound from its current support at around $6.60 will likely push the TON price toward its 50-day EMA (the red wave) near $7. A further upside will bring the $8 target in view, which aligns with its 1.00 Fib line.

TON On-Chain Analysis August 2024: Whale Accumulation Stays Strong

Despite the bearish technical indicators, on-chain data from Santiment shows a continued strong accumulation of Toncoin by whales.

The chart below shows a notable increase in holdings among addresses with over 1 billion TON tokens. Meanwhile, the 100 million to 1 billion TON balance cohort is seeing declines, suggesting that whales in this group are either redistributing their holdings or accumulating more to join the 1 billion-plus balance cohort.

Whale accumulation often precedes significant price movements, indicating potential bullish sentiment in the mid to long term. The continued accumulation amid a broader market downturn suggests that these large investors are positioning themselves for a future rebound in TON’s price.

A quick look at the TON’s fundamentals indicates the same.

TON Fundamental Analysis August 2024

From a fundamental perspective, Toncoin’s ecosystem is bustling with activity, as indicated by its rising total-value-locked (TVL) indicator, which is hovering around an all-time high.

In other words, more users are locking their TON holdings to either run the TON Blockchain or its decentralized applications. As more TON goes out of active supply and demand increases, on the other hand, it can boost the cryptocurrency’s price in the long run.

And it appears demand will grow thanks to the following developments inside the TON Blockchain ecosystem.

First, Hamster Kombat, a viral Telegram-based tap-to-earn game on The Open Network (TON), has attracted 300 million players. However, its airdrop for the HMSTR token has been delayed due to technical complexities.

Notcoin (NOT) is also making waves by launching a story-driven Web3 game in collaboration with the Lost Dogs NFT collection and TON-based NFT marketplace Getgems. This initiative aims to transition from a tap-to-earn model to a more sustainable and community-driven ecosystem, enhancing user engagement and long-term viability.

Moreover, Trust Wallet has partnered with The Open Network (TON) to foster blockchain adoption. This collaboration enables Trust Wallet’s 100 million users to send and receive Toncoin (TON) tokens and access the TON ecosystem, including GameFi and decentralized applications (DApps).

Telegram has introduced an in-app browser supporting decentralized websites known as ‘TON Sites.’ This feature aims to make Web3 accessible to nearly one billion monthly users. Alongside, Telegram has launched its Mini App store, further integrating TON into its platform.