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Toncoin Price News: TON Breakout of Key Resistance Could Result in 33% Gains

By:
Alejandro Arrieche
Published: Mar 31, 2025, 16:03 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Toncoin rallied on March 15 as French authorities allowed Pavel Durov to leave the country.
  • As Telegram hits 1 billion monthly active users, demand for TON could keep rising.
  • TON faces resistance at $4 and could drop sharply if a move above this level is rejected again.
Toncoin logo on a blockchain and trading chart. FX Empire
In this article:

In the past 24 hours, the native asset of The Open Network has risen by 4% while it has accumulated a monthly gain of 21.6%.

Supportive comments from the head of Telegram, Pavel Durov, showcasing how the network has strengthened the Telegram ecosystem and the multiple use cases for TON have pushed the asset higher at a point when the market as a whole has been heading lower.

Pavel Durov Official X Account – Source: X.com

Durov highlighted that Telegram hit 1 billion monthly users (MAUs). Users within the instant messaging app can use TON to make in-app purchases like paying for ads or subscribing to a premium channel.

TON is the exclusive payment method accepted within the app and this creates a huge source of demand for the token.

In addition, Durov commented that The Open Network received $400 million in funding from top venture capitalists like Sequoia and Draper to keep strengthening its infrastructure and value proposition.

Durov’s Freedom Triggered TON’s Rally on March 15

The price of TON started its uptrend on March 15 after news started to circulate that French authorities gave Durov permission to leave the country.

The head of Telegram was arrested in August last year amid his alleged involvement with a platform that facilitated illicit activities like drug trafficking and money laundering.

TON/USD Daily Chart (Kraken) – Source: TradingView

Since then, the price has been rising as positive momentum gained traction. Now, TON has hit and rejected a move above a key resistance level at $4 per coin.

A spike above this area was quickly followed by a liquidity trap that aimed at flushing out bulls who took long positions after this bullish breakout.

Since no confirmation candle came after this bullish break, it is still too early to tell if Toncoin will manage to make above this resistance. If TON retraces, the odds of another retest will remain high as long as the price stays above the 38.2% Fibonacci at around $3.4.

If it drops below that level, it is highly likely that TON will move along with the market’s trend – which is bearish.

Meanwhile, if a break above the $4 level is confirmed, the price could rally by 33% to around $5.4 as positive momentum will likely accelerate.

TON Bulls May Have a Hard Time Pushing It Above $4

Despite this latest pullback, the hourly chart shows that TON is on an uptrend as the price has made several higher highs and higher lows since March 16.

TON/USD Hourly Chart (Kraken) – Source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the signal line while TON has remained above the 50% Fibonacci, meaning that bulls are still in control of the price action in this lower time frame.

At this point, a retest of the $4 level seems highly likely. However, a long position at current levels does not offer an attractive risk-reward ratio.

As market sentiment is still bearish and the entire market is on a downtrend, the chances that TON could trap bulls at some point are high, especially if the price approaches the $4 area.

Short-sellers could keep an eye on the price action if this level is retested as another rejection could result in significant short-term losses for TON. This could be the most attractive Toncoin trade at the moment as it would offer the highest risk-reward ratio.

About the Author

Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis

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