Toncoin Tanks to Two-Week Low Despite Trump-led Crypto Market Rally

Toncoin (TON) tanked to its lowest levels in over two weeks, hitting $6.79 after a 3.11% intraday drop on July 23.

The Telegram-linked coin’s ongoing drop makes it one of the worst-performing cryptocurrencies amid a Donald Trump-led market surge. The assassination attempt on Trump—a pro-crypto US presidential nominee—on July 13, followed by Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the election race afterward, failed to excite TON bulls.

Consequently, TON/USD is down over 7.25% since July 13, while the broader crypto market has surged by approximately 14% in the same period.

TON’s Crypto Market Share is Down

On July 5, the release of underwhelming US jobs data heightened expectations for a rate cut in September, triggering a broader crypto market rebound, including Toncoin.

However, TON’s market dominance dropped from 0.92% to 0.73% during this period.

There are three potential reasons behind TON’s declining market share: shift in investors’ focus, competitor tokens rally, and profit taking.

Investors are pivoting towards Bitcoin, driven by Trump’s potential Bitcoin reserve policy, and Ethereum, buoyed by the ETF euphoria. At the same time, underbought tokens like XRP and Avalanche, which compete with TON’s blockchain, have rallied significantly in recent days.

Also, as 2024’s top performer among major cryptos, TON has seen traders locking in profits and reallocating funds to undervalued assets.

Bullish Signals: TON’s Rising TVL and Fake Breakdown History

Despite the price drop, TON’s total value locked (TVL) reached a record high of 108.51 million TON on July 23. This increase in TVL indicates growing confidence in the TON ecosystem.

Historically, TON has experienced fake breakdowns followed by strong recoveries, suggesting a potential bullish reversal.

TON Technical Analysis

The attached chart reveals a potential bullish reversal pattern for TON. The recent dip to $6.79 aligns with a descending channel pattern, which often precedes an upward breakout toward the upper trendline of the channel, currently near $7.00.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30 suggests that TON is oversold, further supporting a potential recovery. In doing so, the cryptocurrency will likely target key resistance levels at around $7.01, $7.14, and $7.36, corresponding to the 0.236, 0.382, and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively.