Toncoin (TON) Recovers Losses With Fed Rate Path in Focus

Toncoin (TON) bounced back on Sept. 9, extending its recovery from a selloff driven by cooling U.S. jobs data that has reignited debate among crypto traders over the Fed’s next interest rate decision.

TON Jumps Alongside Global Stocks

TON’s price surged over 3.5% to $5.12, marking a more than 15% recovery from its Sept. 6 low of $4.45. The cryptocurrency’s recovery aligned with rebounds in the riskier markets, including the Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark and the futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

These indexes had slumped alongside the crypto market following the weaker-than-forecast US payroll numbers on Sept. 6.

Now, the Fed is caught debating whether to take a gradual approach or front-load rate cuts, sparking renewed investor concerns about a potential recession. All eyes are on the next key indicator: Sept. 11’s U.S. inflation report, which could offer fresh clues on the Fed’s course of action.

“A September rate cut by the Fed is all but certain, but the real question is how many cuts we’ll see and their magnitude moving forward,” said Louis Kuijs, Asia-Pacific chief economist at S&P Global, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

He noted that “significant risks” across the global economy are a key concern for the Fed. In response to the payroll data, traders have ramped up bets on a 50 basis-point rate cut this month, a reason why TON and the broader risk market are recovering on Sept. 9.

Toncoin is Confirming Cup-and-Handle Pattern Breakdown

The selloff at the end of last week triggered a cup-and-handle breakdown pattern on the TON daily chart.

Notably, a cup-and-handle pattern, or C&H pattern, forms when the price rises and declines in a rounding-top shape—a cup—followed by a small period of consolidation—a handle. As a rule, the C&H pattern resolves after the price breaks below its neckline support and drops by as much as the maximum distance between the cup’s peak and the neckline.

As of Sept. 9, TON was trading below this key neckline, following last week’s breakdown. This suggests that the price has entered a bearish phase. The current price action shows a retest of the broken neckline, acting as resistance.

In technical analysis, this retest is often seen as confirmation of the bearish trend, as traders typically test the previous support as resistance before the price moves further downward. That indicates more downside for TON unless it reclaims and holds above the neckline in the short term.

Should the TON’s C&H breakdown continue, it will likely drop to $3.60 by October, down by 30% from the current price levels.