Toncoin Trend That Preceded 120% Price Rally in 2023 Flashes Again

Toncoin (TON), the cryptocurrency backed by the Telegram messaging platform, is currently exhibiting a familiar pattern on its price charts—one that previously triggered a significant rally of over 120% in late 2023.

TON Fractal Analysis: A 50% Rally Next?

The first fractal occurred between May 2022 and September 2023, wherein TON’s price formed a rounded top—a pattern that typically signals a potential reversal from a bullish trend to a bearish one—while treading below a descending trendline resistance.

After reaching the top, the price sharply dropped to a key support level (around $1.22), where it stabilized before staging a reversal. In doing so, TON broke above the rounding top and descending trendline resistances, surging by 10%, marking a clear change in momentum from bearish to bullish.

Fast-forward to September 2024, and Toncoin again shows signs of the same fractal pattern. The price recently completed another rounded top formation and is currently testing a crucial support level at around $5.13.

The similarities to the 2022-2023 pattern are striking, and if history repeats itself, Toncoin might be on the verge of a sharp decline to the next support level around $3.41—a move that would complete the bearish phase of this fractal.

TON’s price could now rebound toward $9.77, coinciding with the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level akin to the 2023 fractal. In other words, a 50% rally by 2024’s end.

Toncoin Whales Bought the Pavel Durov-Led Dip

The behavior of Toncoin’s largest holders, commonly referred to as “whales,” adds another layer of analysis to the current market dynamics.

Data from Santiment reveals that the TON supply held by the wealthiest wallet cohort—those holding between 1 million and 10 million TON (brown)—spiked on August 26, just two days after Pavel Durov’s arrest in France was announced.

This increase in whale holdings occurred alongside a noticeable decline in the holdings of smaller wallets, particularly those holding between 10,000 and 1 million TON (teal and black).

In other words, smaller investors might have panicked and sold off their holdings to whales that took advantage of the market dip to accumulate more TON.