Major cryptocurrencies look set to end the week in the green with plenty of macro risk on deck next week.
Major cryptocurrencies are currently on course to post solid on-the-week gains. Bitcoin was last changing hands near $22,500, lower versus earlier weekly highs above $24,000, but still higher by about 8.5% this week. Ethereum, meanwhile, was last trading just under $1,550, down from earlier weekly highs near $1,650 but still above 15% up on the week.
Crypto was this week boosted as (mostly) upbeat US corporate earnings boosted the major US indices and broad macro risk appetite and with Ethereum getting further tailwinds amid “Merge” optimism now a date has been announced. Crypto traders will continue monitoring a host of macro risks next week.
Firstly, the US earnings season continues with some heavy hitters reporting next week. Apple, Amazon and Microsoft – three of the top four largest US companies by market cap – will have reported Q2 results by the end of next week. The tone of their reports will be a key factor in determining the near-term direction of US equity markets and, given their close correlation, cryptocurrency markets as well.
Elsewhere, the US Federal Reserve is expected to implement a second-successive 75 bps rate hike, which would lift the target interest rate range to 2.25-2.5% from 1.50-1.75%. The Fed is continuing on its quest to quickly lift rates above the so-called neutral level (around 2.5%) in order to get a handle on inflation which is at multi-decade highs and approaching double digits on a YoY basis.
Meanwhile, after business survey data on Friday showed that the dominant US services sector likely contracted this month, data out next week will probably show that the US economy shrunk for a second successive quarter in Q2, confirming that the economy was in recession in H1 2022. This makes the Fed’s job in bringing down inflation more challenging.
If the Fed does sound a little more dovish next week amid growing evidence of economic weakness and data confirms recession fears, markets may pull back on Fed tightening bets (as they did on Friday). This could provide a near-term boost for stocks and crypto.
Here is a list of Saturday’s top three trending coins.
Play-to-earn game Axie Infinity’s native AXS token surged to its higher level since late June above $17.75 on Saturday, leaving its 50-Day Moving Average around $15.50 and 21DMA just below that at $14.83 in the dust. The cryptocurrency was last trading higher on the day by about 12%, having pulled back a touch from earlier session highs to the $17.20 area.
Positive headlines in the crypto press about increased whale interest in the token may have pumped it in the last 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap, during this time period AXS was up by around 6.0%, making it one of the best performing cryptocurrencies in the top 100 by market cap.
AXS is currently on course to post weekly gains of around 18.5%. However, the cryptocurrency has this week been unable to break above a key area of support-turned-resistance around $18.00. Should crypto sentiment continue to improve next week, a break above $18.0 could open the door to a swift rally towards the next major support-turned-resistance in the $27-$28 area.
However, with the cryptocurrency currently at the top of a $12.00 to $18.00ish range that has prevailed now for more than a month, some might see current levels as an attractive sell. If macro developments next week weighed on crypto, AXS could easily be headed back under its 50 and 21DMAs and towards recent lows in the $12s.
According to a Saturday tweet from WhaleStats, a website that provides free data on crypto whales, AXS was among the top 10 purchased tokens amongst the largest 500 Ethereum whales over the last 24 hours. AXS is an ERC-20 token that runs on the Ethereum blockchain.
JUST IN: $AXS @axieinfinity now on top 10 purchased tokens among 500 biggest #ETH whales in the last 24hrs 🐳
Peep the top 100 whales here: https://t.co/tgYTpOm5ws
(and hodl $BBW to see data for the top 500!)#AXS #whalestats #babywhale #BBW pic.twitter.com/gkBAMC5WEe
— WhaleStats (free data on crypto whales) (@WhaleStats) July 23, 2022
Some analysts interpreted the news as showing that dip buying interest in AXS is growing, with the cryptocurrency having pulled back around 90% from its record highs above $170 printed last November. However, according to the WhaleStats website, AXS makes up just 0.21% of the USD value of all ERC-20 tokens held in Ethereum wallets (not including ETH).
According to CoinMarketCap, RUNE, the native token on THORChain, is the worst performing top 100 cryptocurrency of the last 24 hours. Over this time period, it has lost nearly 10% of its value.
After briefly surpassing $3.0 per token on Thursday and Friday, RUNE has dropped sharply back towards $2.50 on Saturday, where it is now eyeing a test of support in the form of early July highs. $3.0 has historically been a key level of support and appears to have turned to resistance more recently.
But cryptocurrency is still more than 20% higher on the week and its near-term technical outlook still looks fairly positive. Earlier in the week, it surged above both its 21 and 50DMAs and has arguably been in an uptrend since 18 June. If it can break above $3.0, it may be in with a shot of testing its 200DMA near $5.0.
According to CoinMarketCap, the native token on STEPN’s move-to-earn platform GMT is the second worst performing top 100 cryptocurrency of the last 24 hours. Over this time period, it has lost over 8% of its value.
GMT/USD fell back under its 21DMA at $0.944 on Saturday, a bearish sign that a test of its 50DMA at $0.87 might be coming next. For now though, the cryptocurrency remains in an uptrend since mid-June, so further decline might attract buying interest.
Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018. Joel specialises in the coverage of FX, equity, bond, commodity and crypto markets from both a fundamental and technical perspective.