Crypto prices are broadly lower on Tuesday amid a risk-off tone to macro trade as investors fret about recession.
Global financial markets are in a downbeat mood on Monday, and this is weighing on crypto. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices were last trading lower by about 0.3% each and US 10-year bond yields were sharply down by about 10 bps to around 2.9% as investors in the US fret about a worsening global economic outlook.
Aside from the usual worries about central bank tightening, slowing growth and high inflation, key themes at the moment are 1) the EU and Russia’s ongoing energy spat (will Russia reopen the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after planned maintenance finishes) and 2) worries about renewed economic weakness in China as several cities return to lockdown once again.
As a result, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrency markets was last slightly lower on the day around $860 billion. That marks a more than 10% pullback from last Friday’s highs. The fact that crypto prices peaked right before strong US jobs data is probably no coincidence.
The June jobs report, released on Friday, was interpreted as solidifying the case for a second successive 75 bps rate hike from the Fed later this month. Fed policymakers have also been throwing their support behind a 75 bps hike in recent weeks. The Fed’s hawkish shift since ditching its “inflation is transitory” view in Q4 2021 has been the primary driver of crypto (and equity market) weakness this year, hence why strong data boosts Fed tightening bets also hurts crypto.
Investors are also showing signs of caution ahead of the release of US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data on Wednesday and US Retail Sales data on Friday this week. Traders will recall that an upside inflation surprise back in June when the CPI data was released caused a dump in risk assets like stocks and crypto.
Bitcoin was last changing hands just below $20,000, having earlier found support in the form of an uptrend linking recent lows. Ethereum, meanwhile, was last changing hands around the $1,070s. A recent break below a short-term uptrend has opened the door for a test of late-June lows around $1,000, technicians say.
According to CoinMarketCap, the native token of the Quant blockchain QNT is up around 12.5% in the last 24 hours, making it the best performing top 50 cryptocurrencies (by market cap) over this time period by some margin.
However, at current levels in the $84.00s, QNT/USD remains within the $75-$90ish ranges that have prevailed over the past three days. The pair has thus far been unable to test weekend highs around $90 on Tuesday.
Versus this time seven days ago, QNT is up a staggering 50%, as per CoinMarketCap. QNT’s recent rally was ignited mid-last week when the cryptocurrency broke above a downtrend that had been capping its price action since mid-May. Its break back above its 21 and 50-Day Moving Averages also helped it benefit from some technical buying.
With the 21DMA having recently crossed back above the 50DMA, further technical buying might well be in store. That being said, the negative tone to broader crypto markets is also worth bearing in mind, as it continues to cap upside.
All going well this week in terms of macro developments, if crypto can muster a recovery back to recent highs printed last Friday this week, then QNT seems to be in with a shot of hitting $100 and its 200DMA at $106.00. But it must first muster a sustained break above the $90 level.
At the other end of the top 50 cryptocurrency performance table is DeFi protocol Aave’s utility token AAVE. According to CoinMarketCap, the cryptocurrency has fallen over 10% in the last 24 hours and was last changing hands at around $67 per token, just above its 21DMA at $65.50.
AAVE/USD briefly surpassed its 50DMA at $78 over the weekend, reaching as high as $83 on Saturday. But it has since slumped nearly 19% from these levels. AAVE bulls will be hoping that an uptrend linking the recent lows will prevent a bearish break of the 21DMA and encourage dip buyers into the market. Bulls entering at current levels may well be targetting a retest of weekend highs in the $80s.
The native token to the Cosmos blockchain ecosystem ATOM is the second-worst performer in the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap over the last 24 hour hours, according to CoinMarketCap. During this time, ATOM has dropped by close to 9.0%.
The cryptocurrency was last changing hands just above $8.0 per token, having now broken below its 21 and 50DMAs, both of which are in the $8.20-30 area. In a bearish sign technically, ATOM/USD has also now broken to the south of an uptrend linking lows since mid-June.
That potentially opens the door to a run lower towards the $7.0 level. A break below that would signify a possible test of sub-$6.0 annual lows.
Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018. Joel specialises in the coverage of FX, equity, bond, commodity and crypto markets from both a fundamental and technical perspective.