Tron (TRX) Breaks Major Descending Channel — New Bull Phase Ahead?

Tron (TRX) has been trading within a descending corrective pattern following a sharp rally to a high. The breakout from this structure now signals potential bullish momentum. A detailed Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis suggests the possibility of an impulsive wave forming. Short-term targets are projected based on wave extensions.

TRX Price Analysis

The 4-hour TRX chart illustrates a prolonged correction within a descending channel structure after completing a five-wave impulse on Dec 3, to a high of $0.45. This corrective phase was characterized by a W-X-Y pattern, with the price bottoming out near the $0.22 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement) level on Feb. 3, before stabilizing.

Currently, TRX has broken above the upper trendline of the descending channel at $0.24, indicating potential bullish momentum. This breakout aligns with Elliott Wave theory, suggesting the completion of the Y-wave and the beginning of a new impulsive cycle. 

The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $0.269 represents a key level that TRX must reclaim to sustain its bullish trajectory.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is recovering from neutral territory, signaling increasing momentum. However, it has yet to reach overbought conditions, meaning further upside remains possible before a correction.

If the price can hold above $0.24, it would confirm the strength of the breakout. Failure to sustain momentum could see a retest of lower support levels, with $0.22 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement) acting as the last line of defense before further downside potential emerges.

TRX Price Prediction

The 1-hour TRX chart provides a detailed view of the breakout structure and short-term wave projection. The price has initiated what appears to be Wave (iii) of a five-wave impulse, with a strong move above the former channel resistance.

The projected 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave (iii) stands at $0.30, aligning with a key horizontal resistance zone. If momentum sustains, further upside toward $0.317 (2.0 Fibonacci extension) could be expected before a corrective Wave (iv) sets in.

However, the structure also presents a risk of Wave (ii) extending further downward, potentially retesting the $0.23 level before resuming upward momentum. If this scenario unfolds, it would allow for a stronger buildup before the next leg up.

The RSI on the 1-hour chart shows bullish divergence, indicating that buying pressure is increasing. Yet, overbought conditions may lead to short-term pullbacks before a continuation move toward $0.30 and beyond.

Confirmation of the bullish wave structure would come if TRX decisively closes above $0.273, turning former resistance into support. A failure to hold above $0.24 could invalidate the impulsive structure and shift bias back toward further downside consolidation.

On the other hand, if the price makes a sharp downturn this possibility would be invalidated. In that case, it could mean that from Feb. 18 low we saw another corrective rise still a part of a larger correction. Another lower low would be expected targeting values below $0.20 and prolonging the correction before the price can initiate a new bull phase.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $0.273 (1.0 Fibonacci extension)
• Major Resistance: $0.300 (1.618 Fibonacci extension)
• Critical Resistance: $0.317 (2.0 Fibonacci extension)
• Immediate Support: $0.24 (former breakout level)
• Key Support: $0.230 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement)
• Invalidation Zone: Below $0.220, signaling breakdown