Trump’s First 50 Days Mark Worst Market Start Since 2009—S&P 500 Down 6.4%

Stocks Face Worst Start to a Presidential Term Since 2009 as Market Volatility Persists

U.S. equity markets have experienced a rough start under President Donald Trump’s second term, with the first 50 days marking the weakest performance for a presidency since 2009. According to MarketWatch, persistent market volatility, fueled by economic uncertainty and escalating trade tensions, has put investors on edge.

Major Indexes Post Steep Losses

MarketWatch reports that as of Monday, the S&P 500 had declined 6.4% since Trump’s inauguration on January 20, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 11%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.6%, according to FactSet data. These sharp declines have erased all post-election gains, with the Nasdaq officially entering correction territory last week.

Historical data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data shows that stocks often struggle in the early days of a presidency. Since 1953, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.4% decline in the first 50 days, while the Nasdaq has typically fallen 3.1%. The Dow has been the most resilient, averaging a modest 0.5% gain during this period. However, MarketWatch notes that Trump’s first term in 2017 was a stark contrast, with all three major indexes posting strong gains in their first 50 days.

Economic Concerns Deepen as Volatility Spikes

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s widely watched measure of market uncertainty, has surged more than 60% this year, reaching 27.84 on Monday—its highest level since August, according to FactSet data. MarketWatch highlights that a reading above 20 generally indicates heightened market stress, and the latest spike reflects growing concerns over the U.S. economy’s overall condition.

Recent economic data reported by MarketWatch suggests potential trouble ahead. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates that the economy will contract at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the first quarter, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% in February. These factors, combined with lingering inflationary pressures, have dampened investor sentiment.

Trade Tensions Add to Market Uncertainty

A key driver of the recent market selloff has been Trump’s aggressive tariff stance. MarketWatch reports that heightened trade tensions with major U.S. partners have raised concerns over increased costs for businesses and consumers, further complicating the economic outlook. While Trump’s first term was characterized by pro-growth policies such as tax cuts and deregulation, his current focus on tariffs has introduced significant market uncertainty.

According to Glenmede strategists Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds, the market remains highly sensitive to trade policy developments. “Considerable uncertainty remains over the size and scope of tariffs to be implemented. Just as important is whether they are temporary bargaining tools or a permanent shift in U.S. trade policy,” they said in comments published by MarketWatch. Until more clarity emerges, investors should expect continued market turbulence.

Market Outlook: Volatility Likely to Persist

With economic growth slowing, inflation concerns lingering, and trade tensions escalating, U.S. stocks face an uncertain path forward. Until clearer policy direction emerges, market volatility is expected to remain elevated. Traders should brace for further downside risk while monitoring key policy signals from the White House.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.