U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DX) Technical Analysis – June 24, 2019 Forecast

The U.S. Dollar is trading slightly lower against a basket of major currencies on Monday. The price action is being primarily driven by small gains in the Euro and Canadian Dollar. The British Pound is trading flat and the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are inching lower.

The Canadian Dollar is being supported by higher oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East. However, the weakness in the safe-haven Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc suggest those tensions may be easing.

At 07:32 GMT, the September U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 95.655, down 0.063 or -0.06%.

Euro traders are awaiting the release of the German Ifo Business Climate report at 08:00 GMT. It is expected to come in at 97.4, slightly below the 97.9 previous read. A bigger than expected drop in business confidence could send the Euro plunging since it would increase the chances of a European Central Bank rate cut. This would give the U.S. Dollar Index a boost.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down last Friday on the trade through the previous main bottom at 95.890. The next major downside target is the March 20 bottom at 94.696.

The market isn’t close to changing trend to up, but in three days, it will be inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern could attract counter-trend buyers.

The main range is 94.696 to 97.715. Its retracement zone at 95.849 to 96.206 is controlling the near-term direction of the index. Traders should consider this zone resistance.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 95.743.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 95.743 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move is able to generate enough downside momentum then look for sellers to make a run at the next uptrending Gann angle at 95.219.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over 95.743 will signal the presence of buyers. The first targets are the main bottom at 95.890 and the main Fibonacci level at 95.849. Crossing to the bullish side of these two levels will indicate the short-covering rally is getting stronger.

Overview

Watch for volatility with the release of the Euro Zone reports at 08:00 GMT.