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U.S. Dollar Is Mostly Flat As PCE Price Index Meets Expectations: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Feb 28, 2025, 16:52 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • GBP/USD tested support at 1.2600 - 1.2615 as traders reacted to U.S. economic data.
  • USD/CAD moved away from recent highs amid profit-taking.
  • USD/JPY gained ground as Japan's Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports missed analyst expectations.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY
In this article:

U.S. Dollar Index Consolidates Below 107.50

DXY
DXY 280225 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is mostly flat as traders react to PCE Price Index report. The report indicated that PCE Price Index declined from 2.6% in December to 2.5% in January, in line with analyst estimates. On a month-over-month basis, PCE Price Index increased by 2.3%.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles above the 107.50 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 108.30 – 108.50 range.

EUR/USD Attempts To Settle Back Above 1.0420 – 1.0435

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 280225 4h Chart

EUR/USD is trying to settle back above the resistance at 1.0420 – 1.0435 as traders focus on Retail Sales data from Germany. Retail Sales increased by +2.9% year-over-year in January, compared to analyst forecast of +1.5%.

A move above the 1.0435 level will push EUR/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.0458. If EUR/USD climbs above the 50 MA, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.0515 – 1.0530.

GBP/USD Tests Support At 1.2600 – 1.2615

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 280225 4h Chart

GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle below the support at 1.2600 – 1.2615 as traders focus on Nationwide Housing Prices report from the UK. The report showed that housing prices increased by +3.9% year-over-year in February, compared to analyst forecast of +3.4%.

In case GBP/USD stays below the 1.2600 level, it will move towards the next support level at 1.2485 – 1.2500.

USD/CAD Pulled Back From Recent Highs

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 280225 4h Chart

USD/CAD moved away from recent highs as traders took some profits off the table after the rally. However, U.S. tariffs on Canada may put additional pressure on the Canadian dollar in the upcoming trading sessions.

If USD/CAD settles above the 1.4450 level, it will get to the test of the resistance at 1.4485 – 1.4500.

USD/JPY Gains Ground As Japan’s Retail Sales Miss Analyst Expectations

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 280225 4h Chart

USD/JPY gained ground despite the pullback in Treasury yields. Traders focused on the disappointing Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports from Japan.

If USD/JPY settles above the 151.00 level, it will get to the test of the resistance at 151.50 – 152.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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