The US dollar has rallied rather significantly against the Japanese yen during the trading week, breaking above the ¥128 level.
The US dollar has rallied during the course of the week to show signs of strength yet again. After all, the market has broken above the ¥128 level. The ¥128 level is an area that has a certain amount of minor psychological importance, but it is probably worth noting. From a longer-term perspective, the ¥125 level continues to offer an area of potential support, so a pullback to that area could be very in tune with what the market desperately needs.
If we break down below the ¥125 level, then the market is likely to go to the ¥122.50 level after that. Quite frankly, there is no scenario in which I am wishing to short this market, although I recognize that we have gotten so parabolic that a pullback is more likely than not going to be necessary. If we were to continue going higher, it would make me a lot less comfortable, because quite frankly this is a market that should have pullback a while ago.
While the Bank of Japan continues to fight rising interest rates, they are essentially “printing yen”, and therefore it is likely that the currency will continue to suffer. It is also worth noting that we had recently broken above a major resistance barrier in the form of the ¥125 level, going back multiple years. With this being the case, I think we do go much higher.
The US dollar is going to be supported by the fact that the Federal Reserve is looking to tighten monetary policy, so this is essentially a “one-way trade”, but you need to find some type of value to get involved. A 300 point pullback would be very possible at this point.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.