US Dollar Forecast: ADP Jobs Data and ISM PMI to Influence Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

Gold Rises as US Dollar Awaits Powell, Key Data

Gold (XAU/USD) holds steady near $2,649, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and strong safe-haven demand despite a resilient US dollar. The greenback gained momentum following robust JOLTS Job Openings data, which rose to 7.74M in October, surpassing forecasts of 7.51M.

However, markets await Fed Chair Powell’s remarks and the Beige Book for clarity on rate policy.

Upcoming data, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment report (forecast: 152K) and ISM Services PMI (forecast: 55.7), may further influence the dollar’s trajectory. A firm dollar could cap gold’s gains, while soft data or dovish Fed signals may support further upside for bullion.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.39, up 0.04%, staying just above its pivot point at $106.33. The index is consolidating within a sideways range, reflecting market hesitation ahead of key economic data.

Immediate resistance is at $106.53, followed by $106.72 and $106.92, while support levels are seen at $106.10, $105.87, and $105.69.

Technical indicators show the 50-day EMA at $106.32 and the 200-day EMA at $106.37, underscoring a tightly clustered support zone. A breakout above $106.53 could open the door to further gains, while a slip below $106.33 might trigger a bearish move.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,649.83, up 0.22%, holding above its $2,643.40 pivot point. Resistance levels are at $2,655.67, $2,665.23, and $2,677.13, while support lies at $2,634.74 and $2,621.48.

The 50-day EMA at $2,643.63 and the 200-day EMA at $2,647.96 bolster a bullish tone. A symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a breakout above $2,655.67 or below $2,643.40 could set the next trend.

Sterling Weakens as Retail Sales Miss Forecast

The British pound (GBP) slipped after the BRC Retail Sales Monitor reported a steep decline of -3.4% in November, missing the 0.7% forecast. This disappointing data highlights ongoing consumer struggles amid economic uncertainty.

Traders now await BOE Governor Bailey’s remarks and the Final Services PMI, which held steady at 50.0, indicating stagnation in the services sector.

Bailey’s speech could provide key insights into monetary policy direction, influencing sterling’s next move against major currencies.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.26794, up 0.06%, holding just above its pivot point at $1.26722. The pair remains in a sideways range, reflecting market indecision. Immediate resistance is at $1.27014, with additional levels at $1.27235 and $1.27500. On the downside, key support lies at $1.26509, followed by $1.26179 and $1.25887.

The 50-day EMA at $1.26715 and the 200-day EMA at $1.26604 provide near-term support, aligning closely with the pivot. A breakout above $1.27014 could signal bullish momentum, while a drop below $1.26722 may trigger selling pressure.

Euro Gains as Spanish Data Impress, Lagarde Speaks Next

The euro (EUR) found support as Spain’s unemployment dropped by 16,000 in November, defying the forecasted rise of 29.3K. However, mixed signals emerged from PMI data, with Spanish Services PMI falling to 53.1 from 54.9 and Italian PMI underperforming at 50.9.

French and German PMIs remained stagnant at 45.7 and 49.4, respectively. Traders now eye ECB President Lagarde’s speech and the German 10-year bond auction for further insights into the euro’s trajectory.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.05101, up 0.05%, holding below the pivot point at $1.05262. The pair remains range-bound, with a symmetrical triangle pattern suggesting indecision in the market. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.05477, followed by $1.05678 and $1.05841.

On the downside, support lies at $1.04925, with additional levels at $1.04637 and $1.04432. The 50-day EMA at $1.05125 highlights short-term support, while the 200-day EMA aligns with the pivot at $1.05262, marking a critical level for directional bias.

A breakout above $1.05262 could pave the way for bullish momentum, but the triple-top resistance pattern may limit further gains. A sustained drop below $1.04925, however, could trigger renewed selling pressure.