US Dollar Forecast: DXY Gains After U.S. Jobs Data; Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Gains Amid Job Data; Gold Steady on Safe-Haven Demand

The US Dollar strengthened after better-than-expected Unemployment Claims of 211K, compared to a forecast of 222K. However, Final Manufacturing PMI held steady at 48.3, underscoring sluggish factory activity.

Gold prices hovered near $2,659 as traders balanced safe-haven demand with the dollar’s resilience. Construction spending stagnated at 0.0%, below the expected 0.3%, limiting optimism about US economic momentum.

Upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Wards Total Vehicle Sales reports could further shape market sentiment. Meanwhile, FOMC Member Barkin’s speech may offer insight into the Federal Reserve’s 2025 policy direction, influencing both the dollar and gold’s trajectory.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 109.08, down 0.16% in the session, as it consolidates above the $108.56 pivot point. Immediate resistance is at $109.55, with a stronger hurdle at $110.13, suggesting room for upside if bullish momentum sustains. On the downside, support is positioned at $107.73, with an additional safety net at $107.13.

Technical indicators show a mixed picture. The index trades above its 50-day EMA at $108.23, signaling short-term bullish momentum, while the 200-day EMA at $107.00 highlights long-term strength. However, a break below $108.56 could signal a sharp pullback, exposing DXY to increased selling pressure.

Traders should watch for a decisive move above $109.55 to confirm further gains.

Gold Prices: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,659.16, up 0.04%, consolidating near the $2,662.92 pivot. Resistance is at $2,675.33; support lies at $2,641.02. It trades above its 50 EMA ($2,631.16) but below its 200 EMA ($2,641.83), reflecting cautious sentiment.

A break above $2,662.92 may drive bullish momentum, while a dip below $2,641.02 risks pullbacks.

Sterling Steady as UK Manufacturing PMI Disappoints

Sterling held its ground despite weak UK manufacturing data, with the Final Manufacturing PMI slipping to 47.0, below the expected 47.3. Nationwide HPI surprised positively, rising 0.7% compared to the 0.1% forecast.

Upcoming data on M4 Money Supply (forecasted at 0.1%) and Mortgage Approvals (expected at 69K) could shape short-term sterling movements.

Investors are also eyeing Net Lending to Individuals, projected at £4.4 billion, to gauge economic health and consumer confidence.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.23934, up 0.15%, as the pair builds momentum above the $1.23512 pivot point. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.24434, with the next target at $1.24976 if buying interest persists. On the downside, support is firm at $1.23067, with a deeper safety net at $1.22499.

Technical indicators reflect mixed sentiment. GBP/USD trades below its 50-day EMA at $1.25249 and its 200-day EMA at $1.26541, signaling broader bearish pressure. However, oversold conditions suggest the potential for a short-term bounce, particularly if prices remain above $1.23512.

A sustained move above $1.24434 could confirm bullish traction, while a dip below $1.23512 might expose the pair to renewed selling pressure.

Euro Slips as Manufacturing Data Stagnates Across Europe

Eurozone manufacturing data highlighted mixed trends, with Spain’s PMI at 53.3, slightly below the forecast of 53.6, and Italy’s surpassing expectations at 46.2. However, weak numbers from France (41.9) and Germany (42.5) reflect persistent industrial challenges.

The Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI settled at 45.1, underscoring ongoing contraction. Meanwhile, M3 Money Supply grew by 3.8%, beating forecasts.

Upcoming German unemployment data and Spanish job statistics will provide further insight into labor market conditions impacting the euro’s trajectory.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.02823, marking a 0.21% uptick as the pair finds support at the $1.02586 pivot point. On the 4-hour chart, immediate resistance is positioned at $1.02973, with further upside potential toward $1.03396 if momentum holds. Key support lies at $1.02219, with $1.01809 acting as a critical safety net against downside risks.

The technical indicators paint a mixed picture. EUR/USD remains below its 50-day EMA at $1.03837 and its 200-day EMA at $1.05034, signaling a broader bearish trend. However, oversold conditions suggest a potential short-term rebound, particularly if the pair maintains support above $1.02586.

A decisive break above $1.02973 could attract buyers, while a drop below $1.02586 may trigger renewed selling pressure.