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US Dollar Forecast: DXY Up 0.19% on Retail Boost, EUR/USD Eyes German Report Impact
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Key Points:
- US Dollar's modest uptick to 104.275 highlights investor response to strong US Core PPI and PPI data.
- UK's Retail Sales jump by 3.4% M/M, showcasing unexpected consumer spending strength amidst economic forecasts.
- Ahead: US Presidents' Day impacts market activity; German Buba Monthly Report may influence EUR/USD dynamics.
Moreover, preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment edged closer to forecasts, registering at 79.6 against an anticipated 80.0.
Across the pond, the Eurozone and the UK revealed mixed signals; France’s Final CPI dropped by 0.2%, while the UK’s Retail Sales surged by 3.4% month-on-month, significantly outperforming expectations and painting a varied picture of consumer behavior.
Events Ahead
Looking ahead, the immediate calendar highlights a bank holiday in the US for Presidents’ Day, temporarily pausing local market activities.
However, Europe remains active with the release of the German Buba Monthly Report, a key economic indicator that provides insight into the Bundesbank’s perspective on economic conditions.
A more hawkish tone than expected could buoy the Euro, impacting the EUR/USD pair.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The Dollar Index is slightly lower today, recording a decrease of 0.05% to stand at 104.226. In this 4-hour chart analysis, the pivot point is noted at 104.418. Looking ahead, the index faces resistance at 104.683, with further barriers at 104.987 and 105.283. Support levels are identified at 104.095, 103.803, and 103.527, offering critical points for potential rebounds or further declines.
Technical indicators, including the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 104.294 and the 200-Day EMA at 103.696, alongside an upward trendline support at 104.200, suggest a bullish sentiment above this level. The Dollar Index’s current positioning above the 104.200 mark indicates a positive outlook, with investors advised to monitor these key technical levels for insights into future movements.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
The EUR/USD pair has seen a slight uptick of 0.06%, trading at 1.07806. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is established at $1.07718. Looking ahead, the currency faces immediate resistance at $1.08064, with further ceilings at $1.08355 and $1.08619. Support levels are positioned at $1.07440, $1.07223, and $1.06937, indicating potential zones for buyers.
Technical indicators reveal a bullish sentiment above the pivot point, supported by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.07643. However, the 200-Day EMA stands at $1.08250, suggesting a cautious approach for traders. The overall trend leans bullish above $1.07718, advising investors to monitor these key levels and EMAs for informed trading decisions in the EUR/USD market.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing a modest rise, up 0.13% at 1.26148. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point stands at $1.26108. The pair encounters immediate resistance at $1.26548, with subsequent levels at $1.26832 and $1.27195. Support is found at $1.25523, followed by $1.25116 and $1.24793, marking critical junctures for potential reversals.
Technical indicators, including the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.26043 and the 200-Day EMA at $1.26392, suggest a bullish bias above the pivot point. The overall trend for GBP/USD appears bullish above $1.26108, indicating a favorable outlook for buyers, contingent on sustained momentum above this threshold.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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