US Dollar Forecast: Eyes on NFIB Index – Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

Gold and USD React to Key Economic Data Updates

The US Dollar remains stable at $106.19 after final wholesale inventories met expectations at 0.2%. Revised Nonfarm Productivity showed a slight improvement at 2.3%, boosting optimism for labor efficiency, while Unit Labor Costs softened to 1.3%, suggesting easing wage pressures.

Meanwhile, Gold is trading at $2,670.52, supported by a weaker labor cost outlook. Traders are eyeing the NFIB Small Business Index release, forecast at 94.6, for further cues on economic resilience and market direction.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

 

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.19, inching up 0.02% as it holds above the pivot point at $106.04, maintaining a mildly bullish bias. The 50-day EMA at $106.08 and the 200-day EMA at $106.11 are closely aligned, reinforcing support in this zone.

Immediate resistance is at $106.66, with a potential move toward $107.15 if bullish momentum builds. However, a break below $106.04 could open the door to key support at $105.71 and $105.42.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,670.52, up 0.38%, maintaining bullish momentum above the pivot point at $2,657.20. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,685.80, with a further target at $2,704.80. Key support levels include $2,643.00 and $2,624.10.

The 50-day EMA at $2,650.10 and the 200-day EMA at $2,648.20 provide additional support. A sustained move above $2,657.20 bolsters the bullish outlook, while a break below risks triggering sharper downside pressure.

Sterling Awaits Market Direction Amid Policy Focus

Sterling (GBP/USD) trades near $1.2740 as markets digest comments from Bank of England’s Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden. His speech emphasized balancing financial stability with effective central bank interventions, highlighting a shift in focus to non-bank financial institutions.  The lack of major UK events today may keep GBP stable.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.27474, down 0.02% for the session. The pair is sitting just above the pivot point at $1.27352, which aligns closely with the 50 EMA at $1.27354, acting as a key support level. If the price holds above this zone, there’s room for an upward move toward the immediate resistance at $1.27996, with the next hurdle at $1.28415.

On the downside, a break below $1.27352 could expose the pair to immediate support at $1.26870, followed by $1.26388. The upward trendline from earlier lows continues to support the current bullish bias, but losing the $1.27352 level could lead to increased bearish momentum and sharper declines.

Euro Faces Pressure Amid Weak Sentix Confidence Data

The Euro struggled as Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to -17.5, falling short of the -12.4 forecast and previous -12.8, signaling worsening economic sentiment in the Eurozone.

German Final CPI held steady at -0.2%, aligning with expectations, while Italian Industrial Production showed no growth, at 0.0%.

The bleak confidence data highlights ongoing economic challenges, leaving the Euro vulnerable. Traders will watch ECOFIN for broader implications on market sentiment.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is hovering around $1.05541, up slightly by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market mood. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is holding just above the pivot point at $1.05369, which aligns closely with the 50 EMA at $1.05525. This suggests buyers are still showing resilience at this level. Immediate resistance is at $1.05954, followed by $1.06274, where stronger selling pressure might emerge.

On the downside, support is nearby at $1.05050, with $1.04616 as the next level if bearish momentum picks up.

For now, the upward trendline is offering solid support near $1.05369, keeping the pair’s bias mildly bullish. A break below this line could trigger sharper selling, while sustained movement above $1.05369 supports further upside.