US Dollar Forecast: Final GDP and Powell Speech Eyed; Gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD Outlook

US Dollar Strength Weighs on Gold as Fed Speaks

The U.S. dollar strengthened following robust New Home Sales data, reporting 716K units, surpassing the expected 699K. This rise in housing market activity has bolstered the dollar, applying downward pressure on gold prices, which remain stable near $2,660.

Investors now focus on today’s final GDP figures, expected at 3.0%, and unemployment claims forecasted at 224K. Later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech could provide further clarity on monetary policy, potentially influencing gold’s trajectory.

As rate cut expectations loom, market participants remain cautious about the direction of the U.S. dollar and its impact on precious metals.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis 

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $100.934, flat on the day, as it consolidates around the key pivot point of $100.832.

A break above this level could push the index toward immediate resistance at $101.042, with further targets at $101.267 and $101.471.

However, if the price falls below $100.832, it could test support at $100.671, with additional downside at $100.432 and $100.220.

The 50-day EMA at $100.707 offers near-term support, while the 200-day EMA also aligns closely with the pivot, reinforcing its significance.

The outlook remains cautiously bullish above $100.835, but a break lower could trigger sharper declines.

Gold Technical Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,661.28, up 0.18%, holding firm above its pivot point at $2,659.45. Immediate resistance lies at $2,670.40, with strong support at $2,652.41.

A symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a potential breakout soon, favoring bulls above the $2,659 level.

GBP Steady as BOE Cautions, Focus Shifts to US Data

The British pound (GBP) remains steady following remarks from BOE’s MPC Member Greene, who emphasized persistent challenges in the UK economy. Greene noted that UK consumption remains weak and highlighted the need for some economic slack to bring inflation back to target sustainably.

Additionally, service inflation was identified as stubbornly persistent, supporting a cautious approach to monetary easing. With no UK-specific data releases today, GBP traders will shift focus to U.S. events.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.33392, up 0.13%, showing some mild bullish momentum. The pivot point at $1.33132 is a key level to watch.

If the price holds above this level, the pair could target immediate resistance at $1.33544, with the next upside at $1.33782 and $1.34131.

However, a break below $1.33132 could see the pair retesting support at $1.32869, with additional downside targets at $1.32621 and $1.32349.

The 50-day EMA at $1.33547 acts as resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $1.32849 offers a strong support cushion.

For now, the outlook remains bullish above the pivot point, but a break lower could quickly shift sentiment.

Euro Steady as Lagarde Speaks; US Data in Focus

The euro (EUR) held steady after the German GfK Consumer Climate improved to -21.2, slightly better than the expected -22.4, signalling some stabilization in consumer sentiment.

The ECB Economic Bulletin highlighted ongoing economic challenges, while M3 Money Supply growth at 2.5% and Private Loans at 0.6% showed modest improvements.

Markets are now closely watching ECB President Lagarde’s speech for further insights into future monetary policy.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.11392, up 0.07% during today’s session, but it’s facing key resistance near $1.11573. The pair has been struggling to gain traction, with the pivot point set at $1.11439.

A break above this level could signal further upward momentum, targeting immediate resistance levels at $1.11685 and $1.11792.

However, if the price slips below $1.11221, it might trigger a deeper pullback toward $1.11047 and $1.10921.

The 50-day EMA at $1.11530 acts as dynamic resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $1.11335 offers strong support. Traders should watch for a breakout above $1.11439 to confirm bullish sentiment.