US Dollar Forecast: Volatility Expected with Richmond Manufacturing Index – GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

Market Overview

The US Dollar (USD) is trading cautiously as several influential events are lined up today, potentially impacting its movement. Starting early, FOMC Member Logan at 10:15 am (GMT). This speech could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.

At 3:00 pm, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is expected to show a slight increase to 4.4%, potentially influencing housing market sentiment. The CB Consumer Confidence report at 4:00 pm is another key event, forecasted to dip to 102.7 from 104.1, signaling cautious consumer sentiment.

The Richmond Manufacturing Index follows, with a projected improvement to -3 from -4. Later, speeches from FOMC Members Barr and Barkin could provide additional market direction.

With upcoming Prelim GDP and Core PCE Price Index data, traders should be prepared for heightened volatility.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.607, down 0.02%, showing cautious sentiment as it hovers below the pivot point at $106.790. It’s also trading under the 50 EMA at $106.904, indicating short-term bearish momentum. If selling pressure persists, immediate support is at $106.111, with a deeper cushion at $105.590.

On the flip side, a break above the pivot would shift sentiment to bullish, targeting immediate resistance at $107.365 and potentially moving towards $107.853. The key level to watch is $106.790—remaining below this keeps the bearish trend intact.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.26247, up a slight 0.01%, reflecting cautious optimism. It’s holding just above the pivot point at $1.26183 and comfortably above the 50 EMA at $1.25943, signaling short-term bullish momentum.

If buyers maintain control, immediate resistance lies at $1.26938, with a potential push towards $1.27733 if momentum builds.

On the downside, support is close at $1.25404, followed by a stronger floor at $1.24609. The key level to watch is $1.26183—staying above keeps the bullish sentiment intact, but a break below could trigger sharper declines.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.04693, up 0.02%, reflecting cautious optimism in the market. It’s sitting just above the pivot point at $1.04669 and comfortably above the 50 EMA at $1.04516, signaling a short-term bullish bias.

If momentum holds, immediate resistance is at $1.05342, and breaking above this level could push prices towards $1.05860.

On the downside, support lies at $1.04088, with a more significant cushion at $1.03509. Holding above $1.04669 keeps the bullish sentiment intact, but a break below could trigger a sharp sell-off.