US Dollar Forecast: Weak UK GDP and EU Industrial Data in Focus – Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar and Gold React to Inflation and Jobs Data

The US Dollar saw mixed reactions following key economic data on November 14. Core PPI rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations, while PPI edged up by 0.2%, meeting forecasts and reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures.

Unemployment claims came in slightly better than expected at 217K, compared to the forecast of 224K, suggesting strength in the labor market.

Gold remains steady, with traders eyeing Fed Chair Powell’s remarks and the upcoming retail sales data to gauge future moves.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.68, down 0.17%, and sits just below the pivot point at $106.81, suggesting a cautious tone. If the index stays below this level, immediate support lies at $106.38, with additional safety nets at $106.16 and $105.82.

The 50-day EMA at $106.53 reinforces the support near $106.38, hinting at stability within an upward channel. However, a break above $106.81 could shift momentum, with resistance targets at $107.08 and $107.31.

As it stands, DXY leans slightly bearish below the pivot, but a climb above it would boost bullish sentiment for the dollar.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,560.68, down 0.16%, below the $2,571.81 pivot point, signaling a cautious tone. The 50-day EMA at $2,598.10 and the 200-day EMA at $2,665.27 reinforce a bearish outlook.

Immediate support is at $2,538.40, with further levels at $2,511.84 and $2,491.71 if selling intensifies. A break above $2,571.81 could shift sentiment, aiming for $2,594.09.

Sterling Struggles as UK GDP and Trade Data Disappoint

The British Pound (GBP) faced pressure following weaker-than-expected economic data on November 15. Monthly GDP fell by 0.1%, missing the 0.2% growth forecast, while preliminary quarterly GDP rose by just 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%.

Manufacturing production also declined by 1.0%, underperforming compared to the forecast of 0.0%.

Additionally, the goods trade deficit widened to £16.3 billion, further weighing on the Pound. Positive business investment data at 1.2% provided limited support amidst the broader economic challenges.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.2677, up 0.10%, holding just above its pivot point at $1.2669, suggesting a mild bullish sentiment. A symmetrical triangle pattern indicates potential for an uptrend, especially if the pair breaks above immediate resistance at $1.2708.

Further resistance levels lie at $1.2745 and $1.2783, with the 50-day EMA nearby at $1.2702 adding further weight to this bullish outlook.

On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.2630, and a drop below the pivot could shift momentum toward $1.2605 and $1.2579. As long as GBP/USD remains above the pivot, the tone leans positive, but a break below could bring sharp selling pressure.

Euro Slips as Industrial Production Misses Forecasts

The Euro (EUR) faced downward pressure following weaker-than-expected industrial production data. Industrial production dropped by 2.0% in October, significantly missing the forecast of a 1.3% decline and reversing from a previous 1.5% increase.

Flash GDP and employment change figures both met expectations, with GDP growing by 0.4% and employment rising by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter.

Investors are now watching upcoming data, including German WPI and EU economic forecasts, for further guidance on the Euro’s outlook.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.0554, down 0.23%, and staying just above its pivot point at $1.0534, which suggests cautious market sentiment. If the pair holds above this pivot, it may push toward immediate resistance at $1.0575, with further upside targets at $1.0594 and $1.0620.

However, the 50-day EMA at $1.0664 and the 200-day EMA at $1.0823 both lie significantly higher, indicating a generally bearish trend.

Immediate support is at $1.0496, and a break below could drive further declines to $1.0467 and $1.0442. A move below the pivot would likely accelerate selling, reinforcing the downward momentum in the near term.