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US Dollar Forecast: Will FOMC Commentary Shift Dollar Momentum? – Gold, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

By:
Arslan Ali
Updated: Jan 2, 2025, 08:48 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • US Dollar consolidates near 108.43 as mixed PMI data sparks uncertainty, while Gold holds steady above $2,633 on safe-haven demand.
  • PMI data shows the US economy remains steady, keeping the Dollar in focus as traders eye upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI results.
  • DXY stabilizes near pivot at 108.28, with key technical resistance at 108.90. A break above could extend gains, while support holds firm.
US Dollar Forecast: Will FOMC Commentary Shift Dollar Momentum? – Gold, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

In this article:

US Dollar Rises While Gold Holds Steady Amid Data

The US Dollar held firm, trading near 108.43, as economic data met expectations. Unemployment claims came in at 220K, marginally above 219K, while final manufacturing PMI stayed steady at 48.3. Construction spending showed a slight dip to 0.3%, from 0.4%. Meanwhile, Gold traded near $2,633, buoyed by safe-haven demand.

Upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and FOMC commentary are likely to shape sentiment. A weaker dollar could boost Gold, while upbeat data may strengthen the greenback’s appeal, keeping investors alert to market movements.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

Dollar Index Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 108.427, down 0.05%, as it consolidates near its pivot point at 108.28. The index is supported by an upward trendline, with immediate resistance at 108.90 and stronger resistance at 109.35. On the downside, support levels are at 107.73 and 107.20, providing a cushion against selling pressure.

Technically, the DXY remains above its 50 EMA at 108.17 and its 200 EMA at 107.56, reinforcing a bullish bias. A recent triple-top pattern breakout suggests potential for further gains, but traders should monitor a sustained break above 108.90 for confirmation. A move below 108.28, however, could reverse momentum and signal a sharper decline.

Gold Prices : Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart
Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,633.83, up 0.36%, showing steady buying interest. Immediate resistance lies at $2,652.90, with support at $2,628.47. Gold remains above its 50 EMA of $2,620.80, signaling bullish momentum, but testing the 200 EMA at $2,632.78 may cap gains. A sustained break above $2,652.90 could extend the rally, while a drop below $2,628.47 may turn sentiment bearish. Traders should monitor $2,628 for directional clarity.

Sterling Holds Steady as Manufacturing PMI Matches Forecast

The British Pound (GBP) remained stable as the Nationwide HPI m/m surged by 0.7%, exceeding the 0.1% forecast but below the prior 1.2%. Meanwhile, the Final Manufacturing PMI met expectations at 47.3, reflecting ongoing sectoral challenges.

The mixed data highlights limited upward momentum for the Pound as investors eye upcoming economic indicators to assess the broader recovery path for the UK economy.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.25072, down 0.03%, as the market consolidates within a triangle pattern. The pivot point at 1.25341 serves as a critical level, with the pair holding just below it, suggesting bearish momentum. Immediate resistance is at 1.25699, with stronger resistance at 1.26130. On the downside, key support lies at 1.24762, followed by 1.24395.

Technically, the pair remains below its 50 EMA at 1.25445 and the 200 EMA at 1.26049, reinforcing the bearish outlook. A decisive break above the pivot could shift sentiment, targeting the resistance zone. However, failure to reclaim 1.25341 might see the pair extend its losses toward lower support levels.

Spanish PMI Misses Forecast, Signals Modest Growth

The Spanish Manufacturing PMI for December came in at 53.3, below the forecast of 53.6 but slightly higher than November’s 53.1. While the data indicates ongoing expansion in Spain’s manufacturing sector, the slower-than-expected growth suggests potential challenges.

Upcoming releases, such as Italy’s forecasted PMI of 44.9 and Germany’s steady 42.5, will offer additional insights into the Eurozone’s economic momentum.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.03564, up a modest 0.01% as buyers show mild interest. The pivot point at 1.03448 is a key level, supported by a triple-bottom pattern that could keep downside risks in check. Immediate resistance is at 1.03923, followed by a stronger hurdle at 1.04490. On the downside, support levels stand at 1.03101 and 1.02782.

Technically, the pair remains below its 50 EMA at 1.03987, signaling bearish momentum, while the 200 EMA at 1.04488 presents a significant resistance level. A break above 1.03448 could shift sentiment bullish, targeting 1.03923.

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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