US Dollar Forecast: Will Strong Jobs Data Lift USD? GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

Market Overview

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding firm ahead of a crucial jobs report, as traders digest mixed economic indicators. On Thursday, US unemployment claims rose to 219K, exceeding the 214K forecast and 208K previous figure, signaling potential labor market softening. However, preliminary nonfarm productivity increased 1.2%, slightly below expectations, while unit labor costs surged 3.0%, reinforcing inflationary concerns.

On Friday, markets will focus on the Non-Farm Employment Change, expected to show 169K jobs added, down from the previous 256K, alongside the unemployment rate, which remains steady at 4.1%. A weaker report could fuel speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially pressuring the USD, while stronger-than-expected data may support further resilience.

With FOMC speeches and inflation data ahead, traders are watching closely for signs of policy direction, particularly as bond yields fluctuate amid shifting market sentiment.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is holding firm at $107.786, up 0.8%, as it continues its upward momentum. The pivot point at $107.712 is a key level to watch—remaining above it reinforces bullish sentiment, while a break below could invite selling pressure.

Immediate resistance is seen at $107.965, with the next hurdle at $108.365, a level that could determine further upside potential. On the downside, support is holding at $107.290, with $106.979 acting as a deeper floor. The 50-day EMA at $107.968 is currently a key resistance level, while the 200-day EMA at $108.198 suggests a strong long-term trend.

Traders should monitor $107.712—staying above keeps bulls in control, while a drop below could shift momentum.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.24319, holding steady with minimal movement as traders assess the next direction. The pair is hovering near its pivot point at $1.24193, a crucial level for determining near-term momentum. A break above this level could push the price toward $1.24872, with further resistance at $1.25502, signaling potential upside.

On the downside, immediate support sits at $1.23597, and a break below could expose $1.22939, reinforcing a bearish outlook. The 50-day EMA at $1.24432 is slightly above the current price, suggesting mild resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $1.24082 supports a bullish bias.

Traders should watch $1.24193—holding above favors buyers, while a dip below may accelerate selling.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.03762, down 0.06%, as it struggles to hold momentum amid mixed market sentiment. The pivot point at $1.03921 serves as a key level for traders, with a break above reinforcing bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.04419, followed by $1.04995, where selling pressure could intensify.

On the downside, support at $1.03200 remains crucial. A sustained move below this could push the pair toward $1.02711, reinforcing a bearish outlook. The 50-day EMA at $1.03743 and 200-day EMA at $1.03776 suggest the pair is consolidating, waiting for a breakout.

Traders should watch for a move above $1.03921 to confirm bullish strength, while a break lower may trigger sharp selling pressure.