US Dollar Forecast: Will Unemployment Claims Boost Momentum? Gold, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

Market Overview

The US Dollar is experiencing subdued activity today due to a bank holiday, resulting in lighter trading volumes. However, significant economic events in the coming days are expected to shape market sentiment.

Key highlights include Unemployment Claims (forecast: 220K) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast: 48.3), which will provide insights into the labor market and manufacturing sector’s health.

Additionally, December’s Pending Home Sales saw a notable rise of 2.2%, outperforming forecasts of 0.9%. With the Federal Reserve’s policy direction and manufacturing data in focus, the US Dollar’s short-term trajectory could hinge on upcoming reports, starting with Thursday’s unemployment data.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $108.48, up 0.37%, signaling continued dollar strength amid cautious market sentiment. The pivot point at $108.53 serves as a crucial level, with immediate resistance at $108.90 and next at $109.35. On the downside, support is seen at $107.97, followed by $107.58.

Technically, the index trades above its 50 EMA at $108.12 and 200 EMA at $107.51, indicating a short- and long-term bullish trend. However, a double-top pattern near $108.53 adds resistance, limiting immediate upside momentum.

A break above $108.53 could drive further gains, while failure to clear this level may invite a retracement toward support zones.

GOLD Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,624.26, up 0.17%, showing cautious optimism. Key resistance is at $2,643.41, while support lies at $2,602.31. Gold trades above its 50 EMA at $2,618.34 but remains below the 200 EMA at $2,632.83, highlighting mixed momentum.

The downward trendline near $2,628 is pivotal; a break above could drive bullish gains, while failure to hold may signal further declines.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.25113, down 0.30% as the dollar shows strength, keeping pressure on the pound. The pivot point at $1.25067 acts as a key level, with immediate resistance at $1.25618 and further challenges at $1.26130. On the support side, $1.24762 provides the first safety net, followed by $1.24395.

A triple-bottom pattern near $1.25067 offers a glimmer of hope for bulls, but the pair’s position below the 50 EMA ($1.25476) and 200 EMA ($1.26075) suggests bearish sentiment dominates for now.

A sustained move above $1.25067 could reignite buying interest, while a break below risks sharp selling toward lower support levels.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.03549, down 0.49% as the dollar strengthens amid mixed market sentiment. The pivot point at $1.03448 is a critical threshold, with immediate resistance at $1.03923 and further barriers at $1.04490. On the downside, support is positioned at $1.03101, with deeper safety nets at $1.02782.

The 4-hour chart shows a developing triple-bottom pattern near the $1.03448 level, suggesting potential for a reversal if the pair holds above this area.

However, with the EUR/USD trading below both its 50 EMA ($1.04036) and 200 EMA ($1.04515), bearish momentum dominates the short-term outlook. A decisive break below $1.03448 could accelerate selling toward the next support levels.