US Dollar Price Forecast: ADP Report and GDP Data in Focus – Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

U.S. Dollar Gains; Gold Faces Pressure as Key Data Looms

The U.S. Dollar strengthened as consumer confidence rose to 108.7, beating forecasts of 99.5. Meanwhile, JOLTS job openings fell to 7.44 million, below expectations, signaling mixed economic signals.

Gold prices face pressure from the strong dollar, as traders anticipate upcoming data, including ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Advance GDP.

With GDP growth projected at 3.0% and an expected rise in Pending Home Sales, further dollar strength could limit gold’s appeal.

However, any surprises in these releases might shift momentum, impacting both the dollar and gold’s safe-haven demand.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is holding steady at $104.27, right near its pivot point of $104.33. Staying above this pivot could give the index a bullish tilt, with immediate resistance at $104.49 and further targets at $104.64 and $104.78. The 50-day EMA at $104.24 offers nearby support, helping to maintain this level.

However, a dip below $104.33 might lead to a sharper sell-off, potentially targeting supports at $104.23 and $104.12. The 200-day EMA at $103.53 remains a strong long-term support.

Holding above $104.33 is key to sustaining a bullish bias, while a break below could shift sentiment bearish.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2785.34, up 0.39%, showing momentum above its pivot at $2777.84. A recent breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern supports an uptrend, with resistance at $2791.56, then $2803.33 and $2815.58.

The 50-day EMA at $2749.20 reinforces support. If prices dip below the pivot, a sharper selloff could target $2769.51 and $2757.99. Holding above $2777.84 remains crucial for further gains.

GBP Steady Ahead of Autumn Forecast Statement

The British pound (GBP) remains under pressure as key indicators show mixed economic signals. The BRC Shop Price Index fell by 0.8% year-over-year, indicating ongoing retail challenges.

On the positive side, M4 Money Supply rose by 0.6%, while mortgage approvals hit 66K, slightly above expectations. Net lending to individuals, however, dropped to £3.8B, below forecasts.

Traders now await the Autumn Forecast Statement, which may reveal insights into the UK’s fiscal outlook and budget plans for the coming year.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.30074, down 0.6%, and hovering near its pivot point at $1.29960. This level is critical for the pair; staying above it keeps the outlook slightly bullish, with immediate resistance at $1.30154, where a double-top pattern may pose some resistance.

Should the pair break past $1.30154, next targets are $1.30320 and $1.30531. The 50-day EMA at $1.29840 adds support, reinforcing a cautious upward bias.

However, if GBP/USD dips below the pivot, a sharper decline could ensue, targeting supports at $1.29764 and $1.29568. Holding above $1.29960 is key for any potential upside.

Euro (EUR) Steady as German CPI and GDP Data Looms

The Euro (EUR) shows resilience amid mixed economic indicators. Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate improved to -18.3 from -21.0, signaling a slight recovery in sentiment. French Flash GDP outperformed at 0.4%, while Spanish inflation rose to 1.8%.

Traders now turn to key German data, including Prelim CPI and GDP figures, for further insights. Additionally, Germany’s unemployment change report could influence market sentiment, as the Eurozone’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.08195, up a slight 0.01%, and currently sitting just above its pivot point at $1.08132. This level is crucial; holding above it could keep the pair bullish, with immediate resistance at $1.08387, followed by targets at $1.08580 and $1.08737.

However, a downward trendline near $1.0838 suggests possible resistance to the upward move. The 50-day EMA at $1.08121 supports the current price, while the 200-day EMA at $1.08712 indicates a longer-term resistance level.

Should EUR/USD dip below the pivot, it may signal a sharper downturn, targeting supports at $1.07973 and $1.07815.