US Dollar Price Forecast: Core PCE and GDP in Focus – Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

USD Steady on Mixed Data; Gold Holds $2,644

The US Dollar remained resilient despite mixed economic data. Consumer Confidence edged higher to 111.7, but New Home Sales fell short at 610K versus 725K forecasted.

FOMC minutes reflected uncertainty, leaving rate direction ambiguous. Gold prices steadied near $2,644, supported by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty.

Key upcoming events, including Core PCE, expected at 0.3%, and Prelim GDP, forecasted at 2.8%, will shape the near-term outlook for the USD and Gold.

Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.4%, signaling underlying economic resilience, while markets await inflation cues from the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales for further direction.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.79, down 0.08%, reflecting modest pressure below the pivot point at $106.92. Immediate resistance lies at $107.25, with further levels at $107.50 and $107.77. The 50 EMA at $106.91 closely aligns with the pivot, reinforcing this as a key level to watch for a potential shift in momentum.

On the downside, support is firm at $106.59, followed by $106.32 and $106.10. The 200 EMA at $106.07 suggests a strong long-term support level, which may help stabilize prices if selling pressure intensifies.

Traders are closely monitoring a break above $106.92 to confirm bullish momentum, while failure to reclaim this level could extend the bearish bias toward lower supports.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,643.75, up 0.41%, rebounding above the $2,629 pivot point. Key support lies at $2,608, while resistance at $2,650 aligns with the 200 EMA.

A break above $2,650 could push prices toward $2,678.56, signaling further bullish momentum.

However, failure to hold above $2,629 may trigger a pullback, targeting $2,608 and $2,589.

Sterling Weakens as CBI Sales Drop; Eyes on US Data

The British Pound (GBP) faced pressure after CBI Realized Sales plunged to -18 in November, missing the forecast of -14 and falling sharply from October’s -6.

The BRC Shop Price Index showed a smaller-than-expected annual decline at -0.6%, hinting at easing retail price pressures.

With no UK-specific events ahead, sterling’s trajectory will depend on broader US economic data, including Core PCE Price Index and GDP updates, as markets assess global economic momentum.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.25796, up 0.09%, as it hovers just below the pivot point at $1.25805. Immediate resistance lies at $1.26138, with further hurdles at $1.26597 and $1.26977.

The 50 EMA, positioned at $1.25811, aligns closely with the pivot, making this a key level to watch. A break above could drive bullish momentum toward higher targets.

On the downside, support is firm at $1.25063, followed by $1.24669 and $1.24296. Traders are eyeing a breakout above $1.25805 for upward traction, while a drop below this level could open doors for sharper declines.

Euro Under Pressure as German Consumer Sentiment Falls

The Euro (EUR) weakened after Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index dropped to -18.8, worse than the forecast of -18.3. Traders now await German Prelim CPI (-0.2% expected) and Spanish Flash CPI (2.3% expected) for further cues.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.0486, down 0.02%, as bearish pressure dominates near the key pivot point at $1.0500. The 4-hour chart shows immediate resistance at $1.0553, while the 50 EMA at $1.0491 adds further selling pressure. A break above $1.0500 could spark bullish momentum, targeting $1.0607.

On the downside, strong support is seen at $1.0425, with additional levels at $1.0384 and $1.0331 providing safety nets for further declines. The 200 EMA at $1.0598 remains a critical barrier for sustained upward movement.

Traders should monitor price action around $1.0500 as it could define short-term direction.