US Dollar Price Forecast: Double-Top Pushes DXY Lower; Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

Gold Rises as U.S. Dollar Weakens on Monday

Monday opened with a softer U.S. Dollar Index following last week’s upbeat data, where core durable goods rose 0.4%, and consumer sentiment hit 70.5. The dollar’s decline today reflects traders reassessing Friday’s optimism, potentially fueled by inflation expectations adjusting to 2.7% and no scheduled data releases.

Gold prices are edging higher, benefiting from the dollar’s weaker start and bolstered safe-haven appeal.

With no new events, the focus remains on how sentiment shifts around inflation and Fed expectations. Both assets await fresh direction, though gold may find support as the dollar temporarily dips.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading slightly higher at $104.613, holding above a key pivot at $104.422. A double-top pattern around $104.570 is currently challenging further upward movement, with resistance levels next set at $104.673 and $104.775.

Support remains close, with $104.328 as the initial fallback, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $104.258. The 200-day EMA sits lower at $103.875, adding to broader support.

Breaking above $104.570 could signal continued strength, but if prices dip below $104.422, bearish pressure might accelerate.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) prices are trading at $2,743.06, up 0.15%, with $2,731.20 acting as critical support. Staying above this pivot suggests a continued bullish trend, with resistance levels at $2,747.60, $2,757.81, and $2,766.51.

A break below $2,731.20 could trigger declines toward $2,722.44 and $2,712.42. The 50-day EMA at $2,730.16 offers additional support, while the 200-day EMA at $2,689.35 strengthens gold’s bullish outlook.

Sterling Steady; Key CBI Sales Data Due Monday

Sterling held steady after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks on financial stability risks tied to clearing houses. Bailey stressed that robust clearing systems are essential for mitigating financial shocks, noting the potential for instability if poorly managed.

Meanwhile, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to -21, reflecting cautious sentiment. Looking ahead, markets will watch Monday’s CBI Realized Sales data, forecasted at -9, to gauge UK consumer activity trends as GBP/USD responds to fresh data inputs.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is showing mild strength at $1.29658, moving above a critical pivot at $1.29577. This level also aligns with an ascending triangle pattern, adding a supportive foundation for potential gains.

Immediate resistance is found at $1.29945, closely followed by $1.30135, while support sits nearby at $1.29291. The 50-day EMA at $1.29633 bolsters the bullish sentiment, though the 200-day EMA at $1.29940 suggests a cautious approach.

A sustained move above $1.29577 keeps the outlook positive, but a slip below could trigger sharper selling pressure.

Euro Rises as German Business Climate Improves

The Euro gained modest support on Friday, bolstered by Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index, which rose to 86.5 from a previous 85.6, signaling slight optimism among German businesses.

Spain’s unemployment rate also improved to 11.2%. However, M3 Money Supply growth softened to 3.2% year-over-year, hinting at limited liquidity expansion.

With no major Eurozone events scheduled today, EUR/USD is likely to respond to broader market movements and USD fluctuations.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading slightly up at $1.07989, holding just above a key pivot at $1.07953. This bounce aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, hinting at a potential move toward the next Fibonacci level around $1.0803.

Immediate resistance is set at $1.08038, followed by further targets at $1.08103 and $1.08175 if momentum holds. However, a slip below $1.07953 could shift sentiment bearish, with immediate support levels at $1.07819 and $1.07701.

The 50-day EMA at $1.08040 adds slight overhead resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $1.08340 reinforces a cautious outlook.