US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Rises in Ascending Channel; Gold, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Gains on 2.6% CPI; Gold Pressured Below $2,560

The U.S. Dollar strengthened as inflation data met expectations, with the CPI rising by 0.2% month-over-month and reaching 2.6% annually. This solid inflation outlook supports expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold its rate stance, pushing the dollar higher.

In response, gold prices are facing downward pressure, trading below $2,560 per ounce as the stronger dollar dampens appeal for non-yielding assets.

Upcoming U.S. data releases, including a forecasted Core PPI increase to 0.3% and unemployment claims projected at 224,000, could further influence dollar strength and add volatility to gold prices, which typically move inversely to the dollar.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is maintaining its upward momentum, trading around $106.68. This steady climb is occurring within an ascending channel, suggesting bullish control as long as DXY remains within these bounds.

Key support holds near $106.16, with further levels at $105.81 and $105.50. Immediate resistance stands at $107.00, followed by $107.31.

The 50-day EMA at $105.28 and 200-day EMA at $103.91 support the bullish structure. A breakout above $107 could invite further gains, while a breach below $106 might signal caution.

The channel’s slope hints that any dip might find buyers quickly, keeping the trend intact for now.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,556, down 0.65% for the session, pressured near its $2,551 pivot. Key support is at $2,529, with deeper levels at $2,506 and $2,483. If support holds, a rebound toward resistance at $2,574 and $2,604 is possible.

The 50-day EMA at $2,650 shows a downtrend, but oversold conditions and a double-bottom pattern hint at potential upward movement.

GBP Rises as UK House Price Balance Hits 16%

Sterling (GBP) received a boost following a stronger-than-expected RICS House Price Balance, which rose to 16%, exceeding the forecast of 12% and the previous 11%.

Investors now await MPC Member Mann’s speech and the upcoming NIESR GDP Estimate, projected at 0.2%, for further economic insights.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound (GBP/USD) is under strong selling pressure, currently trading around $1.26823. The “three black crows” pattern—three consecutive bearish candles—signals a potential downtrend continuation.

Key support is at $1.26730, with further support levels at $1.26446 and $1.26160 if sellers maintain control. Immediate resistance is found at $1.27544, followed by $1.27911.

The 50-day EMA stands at $1.29883, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.28569, both reinforcing the bearish outlook. Unless GBP/USD breaks above $1.27544, the pair remains vulnerable to further declines.

Euro Steady Amid Bond Auction, Awaiting ECB Policy Insights

The Euro (EUR) remains stable following Germany’s 10-year bond auction, yielding 2.38%, slightly above the previous 2.31%. Key economic indicators are due tomorrow, with Flash

Employment Change and GDP both forecasted at 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Industrial Production is expected to decline by 1.3%.

Traders are particularly focused on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts release at 5:30 p.m., which may offer insights into the ECB’s rate and economic outlook.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.05451, maintaining a bearish stance after slipping below the pivot point of $1.05758. Immediate support is observed at $1.05329, with additional levels at $1.05149 and $1.04927, indicating further downside potential if sellers continue to dominate.

Key resistance lies at $1.05802, followed by $1.06282, which could act as hurdles if there’s any upward correction. The 50-day EMA at $1.06424 and the 200-day EMA at $1.07666 underline the downtrend.

For now, the trend remains bearish, and a recovery above $1.05802 would be needed to shift sentiment.