US Dollar Price Forecast: Euro Falls as PMI Data Disappoints; Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Awaits Key PMI Data; Gold Stable

The US dollar remains steady ahead of the release of key economic indicators, including unemployment claims (forecast: 243K), Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.5), and New Home Sales (719K).

Markets will closely watch for FOMC Member Hammack’s comments, which may offer further insight into the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Meanwhile, gold remains stable as investors anticipate these data points, with the IMF meetings also contributing to the broader market outlook for both assets.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading slightly lower at $104.31, down 0.10%, reflecting a cautious tone in the market. Currently, the key pivot point stands at $104.36, serving as a critical level for short-term direction.

Immediate resistance is noted at $104.45, with further resistance at $104.55 and $104.65, signaling potential areas for upward momentum.

On the downside, support lies at $104.23, followed by deeper levels at $104.11 and $104.02. The 50-day EMA at $104.23 is holding as a support level, while the 200-day EMA sits lower at $103.66.

A break below $104.36 could trigger bearish pressure, while a move above it may shift bias toward bullish.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,735.37, up 0.71%, after finding support near $2,708. Immediate resistance is at $2,739, while key support lies at $2,727.

The 50-day EMA at $2,730 provides short-term direction, with the 200-day EMA at $2,702 acting as a floor.

A break above $2,733 could extend the bullish trend; otherwise, selling pressure may emerge.

GBP Drops as PMI Misses; Focus Shifts to Bailey

The British Pound (GBP) dipped following disappointing PMI data, with Flash Manufacturing PMI at 50.3 (vs. forecast 51.5) and Flash Services PMI at 51.8 (vs. forecast 52.3).

Market participants now await key events, including CBI Industrial Order Expectations, MPC Member Mann’s speech, and BOE Governor Bailey’s address.

These will likely shape the near-term outlook for Sterling, as traders seek clarity on potential policy adjustments amidst ongoing economic uncertainties and the IMF meetings in focus.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.29379, showing modest gains of 0.13% in today’s session. The pair is hovering just below the key pivot point at $1.2956, which is crucial for determining the next move.

Immediate resistance lies at $1.2976, with further targets at $1.2995 and $1.3015.

On the downside, support can be found at $1.2926, followed by stronger levels at $1.2908. The 50-day EMA aligns with the pivot point at $1.2956, while the 200-day EMA rests at $1.3012, signaling mixed sentiment.

If GBP/USD breaks above $1.2956, it could pave the way for a more bullish trend, while staying below could keep the bearish tone intact.

Euro Falls as PMI Data Misses; Buba Report Next

The Euro (EUR) softened following weaker-than-expected PMI results, with French Manufacturing at 44.5 and German Manufacturing at 42.6, both below forecasts.

French and German Services PMIs also underperformed, adding pressure on the Euro. The broader Eurozone Manufacturing PMI registered at 45.9, missing expectations.

Traders now focus on the upcoming German Buba Monthly Report for further insights into economic conditions and potential policy adjustments amidst persistent economic challenges.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07836, showing slight upward movement, though it remains below the key pivot point at $1.07932. Immediate resistance lies at $1.08114, with further resistance levels at $1.08285 and $1.08480.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.07742, followed by stronger levels at $1.07607 and $1.07425. The 50-day EMA is at $1.07951, while the 200-day EMA sits higher at $1.08499, indicating a mixed trend.

The pair remains bearish below $1.07932, but a break above could signal a shift toward a more bullish outlook.