US Dollar Price Forecast: Eyes on Prelim GDP and Fed Comments – GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

Market Overview

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting a modest recovery but remains near yearly lows at $106.50, weighed down by concerns over potential 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU announced by President Trump. Although the implementation has been delayed until April, the uncertainty continues to limit the upside for the dollar.

Economic data scheduled for today, including Prelim GDP (Q4), Unemployment Claims, and Durable Goods Orders, could significantly influence the dollar’s direction. The market is closely watching these figures to gauge the strength of the US economy amid growing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.

Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak today, potentially offering insights into the Fed’s policy outlook. Traders are also eyeing Friday’s PCE data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which could shape future rate cut expectations. For now, the dollar remains under pressure, with $106.168 as a key support level to watch.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.579, down 0.02%, showing a slight pullback on the 4-hour chart. The key Pivot Point at $106.168 is the level to watch. As long as the DXY stays above this line, the bullish sentiment remains in play. If it rebounds, immediate resistance is at $107.246, with the next target at $107.952.

On the downside, $105.590 serves as the first support level, and breaking below this could push the index toward $105.132. The 50 EMA at $106.736 is below the 200 EMA at $107.437, suggesting a cautious upward momentum.

However, a break below the Pivot Point could trigger sharper selling. For now, the bulls have a slight edge, but the trend is fragile.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.26654, up 0.02%, maintaining a slight bullish bias on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $1.26623 is the key level to watch. As long as the price stays above this line, the bullish sentiment remains intact. If it breaks higher, immediate resistance is at $1.27154, with the next target at $1.27789.

On the downside, $1.26062 serves as the first line of defense, and a slip below this could push the pair toward $1.25597. The 50 EMA at $1.26200 is above the 200 EMA at $1.25212, signaling continued upward momentum. However, a break below the pivot point could trigger sharper selling.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.04768, up 0.02%, showing mild bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart. The key Pivot Point at $1.04593 is crucial—staying above this level supports a bullish outlook. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.05286, with the next hurdle at $1.05741.

On the downside, $1.04095 provides initial support, followed by $1.03721 if selling pressure intensifies.

Technical indicators show strength: the 50 EMA at $1.04660 and 200 EMA at $1.04255 confirm upward momentum. However, if the price breaks below the Pivot Point at $1.04593, we could see a sharp decline. For now, the bias remains bullish above this level, but caution is warranted if support fails.