US Dollar Price Forecast: Fed Speeches, Trade Balance Data Loom; Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD Outlook

USD and Gold React to Key Economic Data and Fed Speeches

The US dollar is poised for fluctuations as investors await a series of Fed speeches and economic data, including trade balance figures. Gold remains steady, hovering near $2,642, as the yellow metal’s price is closely tied to dollar movements.

The NFIB Small Business Index and RCM Economic Optimism report could impact market sentiment. Meanwhile, Fed officials, including Bostic, Collins, and Jefferson, are set to speak throughout the day, providing insight into future monetary policy.

Any hawkish or dovish comments could influence both the dollar and gold’s trajectory in the short term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly down at $102.337, a 0.12% decline for the day. It’s trading just below the pivot point of $102.487, suggesting some near-term bearish sentiment.

Immediate support is at $102.247, and if this level breaks, the index could drop to $102.145 or even test the $101.999 mark.

On the upside, resistance levels are seen at $102.692, followed by $102.889 and $103.073.

The 50-day EMA at $102.078 is providing short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $101.415 signals a more significant trend floor.

For now, a move above $102.487 could shift the outlook back to bullish, but until then, the index remains under slight downward pressure.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $2,642.93, showing slight gains. Holding above the $2,634.03 pivot point suggests bullish momentum.

Immediate resistance lies at $2,645.85, with potential targets at $2,652.24 and $2,659.48.

On the downside, support is at $2,626.68, and a break below could signal a bearish shift.

GBP Holds Steady as UK Housing, Retail Data Meet Expectations

The Sterling (GBP) remains stable after the release of the UK’s Halifax HPI and BRC Retail Sales data. Halifax HPI rose 0.3% in September, aligning with forecasts, while retail sales increased by 1.7% year-over-year, exceeding expectations.

With no major economic events scheduled today, the pound will likely trade within a narrow range, reflecting recent positive data.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.30917, up a modest 0.06% in the latest session. It’s currently just below its pivot point of $1.31048, indicating that the pair may face short-term bearish pressure unless it can break above this level.

Immediate resistance sits at $1.31346, with further resistance levels at $1.31676 and $1.32003. On the downside, look for support at $1.30585; a drop below this could push the pair toward $1.30312 or even $1.30026.

The 50-day EMA at $1.31489 adds to the overhead resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $1.3221 suggests the pair needs a solid breakout to confirm a bullish trend.

For now, the bias remains cautious unless GBP/USD holds above $1.31048.

EUR Gains on Strong German Data; All Eyes on ECOFIN Meetings

The Euro (EUR) saw upward momentum after Germany’s industrial production rose 2.9% in September, far surpassing the 0.8% forecast and recovering from a -2.9% decline in August. However, the French trade balance widened to -€7.4 billion, reflecting trade deficits.

Today’s focus shifts to the ECOFIN meetings and a speech by German Buba President Nagel, which could provide insights into the economic outlook and influence the euro’s short-term movement.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.09923, up 0.16% in the latest session. It’s holding just above its pivot point of $1.09839, indicating a potential bullish trend if this level is maintained.

Immediate resistance lies at $1.10185, with the next hurdles at $1.10367 and $1.10420. On the downside, watch for support at $1.09718; a break below could push the pair to test $1.09517 or even $1.09351.

The 50-day EMA at $1.10115 serves as a crucial short-term resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $1.10750 suggests that a sustained move higher might need stronger momentum.

For now, staying above $1.09839 could keep the bullish outlook intact, but caution is warranted.