US Dollar Price Forecast: G20 Meetings in Focus: Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Rises, Gold Under Pressure Amid Data

The US Dollar gained momentum on Friday, bolstered by better-than-expected retail sales, with headline sales rising 0.4%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%. However, core retail sales lagged at 0.1%, missing expectations. Gold faced pressure, retreating as the dollar strengthened and U.S. Treasury yields stayed firm.

Looking ahead, market focus shifts to Monday’s G20 meetings and FOMC Member Goolsbee’s speech for insights on economic policy. Meanwhile, NAHB Housing Index and TIC Long-Term Purchases data will also steer market sentiment.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.69, up a modest 0.02%, holding just above the pivot point at $106.40. This level serves as a critical line in the sand for bullish momentum.

Immediate resistance sits at $107.08, with higher targets at $107.46 and $107.79, should buyers maintain control. On the downside, support is positioned at $105.96, followed by $105.62 and $105.29.

The 50-day EMA at $105.85 provides solid short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $104.25 reflects a broader uptrend.

A sustained move above $106.40 keeps bullish sentiment intact, while a breach below could prompt sharper declines.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,585.92, up 0.91%, but remains below the $2,590.93 pivot. Resistance lies at $2,612.24, while support is at $2,561.53. The 50-day EMA at $2,589.11 signals short-term strength, but the 200-day EMA at $2,654.91 reflects a bearish outlook.

A close above $2,590.93 may trigger bullish momentum, while failure could lead to further declines. Traders should watch for key technical patterns.

Sterling Drops as GDP Data Misses Expectations

The British Pound weakened after disappointing GDP figures. Monthly GDP fell by -0.1% versus the expected 0.2%, while quarterly growth slowed to 0.1% from 0.5%. Manufacturing output dropped sharply by -1.0%, reflecting broader economic struggles.

Looking ahead, Monday’s Rightmove HPI (-1.4%) and MPC Member Greene’s remarks could shape market sentiment. Traders will also monitor the G20 meetings for potential global economic cues impacting the GBP.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.26179, up a slight 0.01%, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The pivot point at $1.25983 is acting as a critical support level, with a break below it potentially triggering sharper selling toward $1.25592 and $1.25140.

On the upside, immediate resistance is at $1.26435, followed by stronger hurdles at $1.26970 and $1.27566.

Despite the modest uptick, the 50-day EMA at $1.27719 and the 200-day EMA at $1.29416 highlight a bearish longer-term outlook. Buyers need to decisively push above $1.26435 to sustain upward momentum.

Euro Gains Slightly on Positive Data, ECB in Focus

The Euro saw modest support on Friday as German Wholesale Prices rose by 0.4%, and French Final CPI exceeded forecasts at 0.3%. Italy’s trade balance improved significantly, hitting €2.58B, up from €1.34B previously.

Looking ahead, Monday’s speech by ECB President Lagarde and updated trade balance figures (€7.9B expected) could provide further direction for the Euro. Markets remain sensitive to any monetary policy hints from Lagarde during the G20 meetings.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.05441, up 0.06% on the day, showing a slight recovery after recent declines. The key pivot point at $1.05742 aligns closely with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a critical area to watch.

Immediate resistance lies at $1.06223, followed by $1.06612 and $1.07010, while support levels are set at $1.04973 and $1.04501.

The pair remains oversold, with buyers cautiously stepping in as the RSI stabilizes near neutral. However, the 50-day EMA at $1.06386 and the 200-day EMA at $1.08071 signal longer-term bearish pressure.

A break above $1.05742 could spark bullish momentum, while falling below $1.04973 may trigger sharp selling. Traders should stay alert for breakouts.