US Dollar Price Forecast: IMF Meetings in Focus; Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

Gold Gains as U.S. Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key Events

The U.S. dollar has weakened following the release of economic data, with TIC Long-Term Purchases at $111.4 billion and housing starts steady at 1.35 million. This decline has provided a boost to gold prices as investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets.

Gold is now gaining momentum, driven by both global uncertainties and the softer dollar. Market attention is now focused on FOMC member Harker’s speech and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which could provide further signals on the Federal Reserve’s future actions.

The BRICS Summit and IMF meetings may also shape market sentiment this week.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $103.869, down 0.09% in the session, as the market hovers around key technical levels.

The pivot point at $104.012 is acting as a significant barrier, and as long as the DXY stays below this, the outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is seen at $103.720 with further levels at $103.552 and $103.418. On the upside, resistance stands at $104.221, followed by $104.371.

The 50-day EMA, currently at $103.609, offers dynamic support, while the 200-day EMA at $102.765 remains a broader trend indicator.

A break above $104.012 could shift momentum towards a more bullish outlook, but for now, caution prevails.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,733.78, up 0.52%, maintaining its bullish momentum above the $2,724.37 pivot point.

Key resistance levels to watch are $2,740.43 and $2,754.01, with immediate support at $2,714.17.

The 50-day EMA at $2,718.46 provides dynamic support. A break below $2,724 could reverse the trend and trigger selling pressure.

Sterling Rises as UK Retail Sales Beat Expectations

Sterling (GBP) saw gains after UK Retail Sales rose 0.3% in October, beating the expected decline of -0.4%. This follows a 1.0% increase in September. The stronger data has bolstered confidence in the UK economy, pushing the pound higher.

Traders are now watching the Rightmove HPI report and developments from the IMF meetings for further direction on GBP.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.30135, up 0.22%, as it finds support from a bullish sentiment.

The key pivot point at $1.2997 is acting as a strong support zone, and as long as the pair remains above this level, the outlook stays positive.

Immediate resistance lies at $1.3031, followed by $1.3062 and $1.3093, which aligns with the 200-day EMA. On the downside, key support levels are at $1.2972 and $1.2953, with the 50-day EMA providing dynamic support at $1.3021.

A break above $1.3031 could open the door for further gains, while a move below $1.2997 may signal increased selling pressure. For now, the trend looks optimistic.

Euro Weakens as German PPI Disappoints

The Euro (EUR) weakened after German Producer Prices (PPI) fell 0.5% in October, missing the expected -0.2% decline, adding to economic concerns in the eurozone.

Additionally, the current account for September came in at €31.5 billion, down from €42.2 billion in August.

Investors are now looking for further developments from the IMF meetings to gauge the euro’s next moves in global markets.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08284, up 0.13% for the day. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point at $1.0811 is acting as a strong support zone, reinforced by a double bottom pattern.

As long as prices remain above this level, the bullish outlook holds, with immediate resistance at $1.0841 and further targets at $1.0858 and $1.0873. Key support to watch is at $1.0794, with additional levels at $1.0778 and $1.0762.

The 50-day EMA at $1.08524 is providing further support, keeping the bias upward. However, a break below $1.0811 could trigger a sharp selloff.