US Dollar Price Forecast: Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus—Gold, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Rises as Gold Trades Flat Ahead of NFP Report

The US dollar gained momentum after unemployment claims increased to 225K, higher than last week’s 219K, while the ISM Services PMI hit 54.9, its highest reading since February.

Meanwhile, gold prices held steady, hovering near $2,663, as traders await Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data and Average Hourly Earnings report.

The NFP is expected to show 147K new jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.2%. These figures could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, impacting the trajectory of gold and the dollar in the coming days.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $101.857, down 0.04% for the session, hovering just below its pivot point of $101.862.

Immediate resistance is seen at $102.124, and a break above this level could signal a bullish shift, targeting further resistance at $102.351 and $102.542.

On the downside, immediate support is at $101.678, with additional levels at $101.384 and $101.151. Technical indicators suggest mixed signals; the 50-day EMA at $101.185 indicates short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $101.415 could act as a cap on gains.

If prices remain below $102.124, the index may face additional selling pressure, though a breakout could revive buying interest.

Gold – Technical Analysis 

Gold (XAU/USD)  is trading at $2,663.92, up 0.27%, maintaining bullish momentum above $2,660.

Immediate resistance stands at $2,668.47, with support at $2,654.45 and $2,648.24.

GBP Awaits Key Economic Data; Volatility Expected

Sterling (GBP) is trading cautiously ahead of releasing the UK’s Construction PMI, expected at 53.1, and housing equity withdrawal figures. The Final Services PMI already signalled slowing momentum with a reading of 52.4.

Traders are eyeing MPC Member Pill’s speech for hints on future monetary policy moves. Anticipating these events could drive volatility in GBP pairs throughout the trading session.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.31501, up 0.03% for the session. It shows resilience above its pivot point at $1.31301. A bullish engulfing candle formed on the 2-hour chart, suggesting further upside potential.

Immediate resistance is at $1.31784, followed by $1.32003 and $1.32317, with a breakout above these levels potentially pushing prices higher.

On the downside, support stands at $1.30863, with subsequent levels at $1.3049 and $1.30132.

The 50-day EMA at $1.32382 and the 200-day EMA at $1.32552 indicate that the pair trades below key moving averages, signalling that a sustained move above $1.31784 is needed to confirm a bullish trend reversal.

Euro Steady After Mixed PMI Data; Focus Shifts to Italian Retail Sales

The Euro (EUR) is trading flat following mixed PMI figures. Spanish Services PMI rose to 57.0, while Italy and France showed softer data at 50.5 and 49.6, respectively.

The overall Eurozone Final Services PMI came in at 51.4, above expectations.

Traders now focus on the Italian Retail Sales report, which is expected to show 0.2% growth, down from the previous 0.5%, which could impact EUR sentiment.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.10315, slightly down by 0.02%, but holding above its pivot point at $1.10259. The pair has found strong support near $1.1025, forming a double-bottom pattern, which typically signals a potential bullish reversal.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.10525, followed by $1.10784. If the price moves above these levels, it could target the next resistance at $1.11027.

Conversely, if EUR/USD breaks below $1.10259, it might face selling pressure, with immediate support at $1.10056.

The 50-day EMA at $1.10693 and the 200-day EMA at $1.11026 suggest a neutral to bullish outlook. Short-term, a break above $1.10525 could trigger further gains.