US Dollar Price Forecast: Steady Ahead of Thanksgiving, Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Steady; Gold Pressured by Mixed Data

The US dollar held steady on Wednesday as economic data aligned with expectations. Preliminary GDP growth remained at 2.8%, while unemployment claims slightly improved to 213K, below the forecasted 215K.

Core durable goods orders rose marginally by 0.1%, while the Chicago PMI slumped to 40.2, signaling weaker manufacturing activity.

Gold prices remained under pressure, reflecting the dollar’s resilience and subdued Core PCE Price Index growth at 0.3%. Pending home sales surged 2.0%, outperforming expectations.

With US markets closed for Thanksgiving, gold is likely to see light trading, awaiting further directional cues.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 106.36, up 0.32%, maintaining a bullish tone above the pivot point at 106.18. Immediate resistance lies at 106.54, followed by key levels at 106.92 and 107.21. On the downside, support is seen at 105.86, with deeper cushions at 105.59 and 105.27.

The 23.6% Fibonacci level near 106.18 has been breached, indicating further upside potential. The 200-day EMA at 106.08 supports bullish momentum, while the 50-day EMA at 106.63 signals a critical resistance zone.

A sustained break above 106.54 could extend the rally, while a drop below 106.18 would challenge the bullish outlook.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) prices are trading at $2,632.61, down 0.13%, hovering above the $2,629.61 pivot. Resistance levels at $2,651.77 and $2,678.56 signal bullish potential, while support at $2,608.12 marks a critical retracement zone.

A break below this level could drive prices toward $2,589.60. Traders should monitor the $2,629 pivot, as it remains key to gold’s near-term direction, balancing between cautious bullish momentum and downside risks.

Sterling Struggles Amid Weak Retail Data and Key BOE Events Ahead

The British pound weakened slightly as the BRC Shop Price Index y/y dropped 0.6%, showing declining retail prices. The CBI Realized Sales index also fell sharply to -18, missing forecasts of -14.

Looking ahead, Friday’s key events include M4 Money Supply (forecasted at 0.4%), Mortgage Approvals (65K), and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech.

These developments, along with the BOE Financial Stability Report, will likely shape the pound’s trajectory.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.2647, down 0.25%, as it faces resistance near the pivot point at $1.2683, reinforced by a downward trendline. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.2719, followed by $1.2768 and $1.2805, with the 200-day EMA at $1.2705 further supporting the bearish bias.

On the downside, support lies at $1.2618, with additional levels at $1.2567 and $1.2506 offering potential safety nets.

The 50-day EMA at $1.2612 aligns closely with the immediate support, emphasizing the pair’s bearish sentiment. A decisive break below $1.2618 could lead to further declines, while a move above $1.2683 might signal bullish momentum.

Euro Weakens Amid Dismal German Consumer Sentiment

The euro softened as German GfK Consumer Climate fell to -23.3, below expectations of -18.8, reflecting continued consumer pessimism.

Key upcoming data includes German Prelim CPI m/m, expected to decline by 0.2%, and Spanish Flash CPI y/y, forecasted to rise to 2.3%.

Additionally, M3 Money Supply and Private Loans y/y figures are anticipated to show modest growth at 3.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The Italian 10-year bond auction results will further gauge market sentiment.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.0533, down 0.29%, as the pair struggles under a downward trendline near the pivot point at $1.0560. Immediate resistance lies at $1.0607, followed by $1.0653 and $1.0686, with the 200-day EMA at $1.0593 reinforcing bearish pressure.

On the downside, support is seen at $1.0498, with deeper levels at $1.0463 and $1.0422 offering potential cushions.

The 50-day EMA at $1.0515 highlights bearish momentum, keeping the focus on a potential test of lower support levels. A break above $1.0560 could shift sentiment, triggering bullish interest toward higher resistance zones. For now, the pair remains bearish below $1.0559, making the pivot a critical level to watch.