US Dollar Price Forecast: Will DXY Hold Support? Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

USD Pressure Builds; Gold Steady Amid Key Economic Data

The U.S. dollar faced moderate pressure as recent economic data presented a mixed picture. The Goods Trade Balance revealed a deeper deficit at -$95.9B, suggesting weaker trade activity, while preliminary wholesale inventories remained unchanged at 0.1%, indicating steady stock levels.

Meanwhile, housing data showed a slight cooling, with the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y at 4.9%, down from the previous 5.9%.

Consumer confidence saw an uptick to 99.5, signaling optimism, though JOLTS job openings softened to 7.98M. Gold prices remained stable amid dollar volatility, with investors closely watching these figures to gauge Fed policy shifts.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading slightly lower at $104.308, hovering within a narrow range between $104.350 and $104.229. This tight band has created a key decision zone, with any breakout likely to determine the next direction.

Holding above $104.350 signals potential upside, with immediate resistance at $104.570, followed by $104.673 and $104.775. However, a slip below $104.229 could open a path to $104.115, and further to $103.940.

The 50-day EMA at $104.268 offers near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $103.959 reinforces a longer-term base.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,749, hovering near the pivot at $2,747.77. Resistance lies at $2,757.81 and $2,766.51, with a double-top pattern around $2,757 presenting a challenge.

A break above this level could signal bullish momentum, while slipping below $2,739.77 may push it toward $2,728.21. The 50-day EMA at $2,740.03 and 200-day EMA at $2,720.10 suggest caution.

Sterling Steady Amid Mixed Retail and Lending Data

The British pound showed limited movement as recent data presented mixed signals. CBI Realized Sales fell to -6, above forecast but still in negative territory, indicating retail weakness.

The BRC Shop Price Index dropped by 0.8%, reflecting a continued decrease in retail prices.

Investors will closely watch upcoming figures, such as M4 Money Supply at 0.1% and stable mortgage approvals at 65K, as well as Net Lending to Individuals, which slightly declined to £4.1B from £4.2B.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is holding steady at $1.29729, edging slightly higher with the upward trendline providing firm support around $1.29583. A break below this pivot point could prompt sharper declines, though staying above $1.29583 suggests bullish momentum may persist.

Immediate resistance is at $1.29819, followed by $1.29995, which could challenge further upside. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA at $1.29690 reinforces near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $1.29898 is adding overhead pressure.

Euro Gains Slightly as German Consumer Climate Improves

The Euro found modest support after Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index improved to -18.3, beating the forecast of -20.4 and previous -21.0. This suggests a slight uplift in consumer sentiment despite economic challenges.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is showing a modest gain, hovering around $1.08122. A symmetrical triangle pattern is guiding the currency’s sideways movement, setting a resistance at $1.0826 and support at $1.0796.

The pivot point at $1.08069 will be crucial in defining the next moves; staying above it suggests a bullish outlook. If it breaks lower, though, we could see stronger selling pressure take over.

Currently, the 50-day EMA at $1.08102 offers short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $1.08297 may pose resistance if prices continue higher.