November's housing report: Permits dip 2.5% but up 4.1% YoY. Housing starts surge 14.8%, single-family up 18.0% from October.
The latest housing report for November 2023, released on December 19, 2023, has brought some surprises as the figures diverged from pre-report estimates. The data, provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, reveals key insights into building permits, housing starts, and completions.
In November, privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,460,000. This represents a 2.5 percent drop from the revised October rate of 1,498,000. However, it’s worth noting that the November 2023 rate is still 4.1 percent higher than the same month last year, standing at 1,402,000. Single-family authorizations in November showed resilience, coming in at 976,000, marking a 0.7 percent increase compared to the revised October figure of 969,000. Authorizations for units in buildings with five units or more reached a rate of 435,000 in November.
November saw privately-owned housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,560,000, surpassing expectations with a 14.8 percent increase compared to the revised October estimate of 1,359,000. This figure is also 9.3 percent higher than the rate recorded in November 2022, which stood at 1,427,000. Single-family housing starts experienced significant growth, reaching a rate of 1,143,000 in November, an impressive 18.0 percent increase compared to the revised October figure of 969,000. The rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000 in November.
Privately-owned housing completions in November reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,447,000. This marks a 5.0 percent increase compared to the revised October estimate of 1,378,000. However, it is worth noting that completions are 6.2 percent below the rate recorded in November 2022, which was 1,543,000. Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 960,000, reflecting a 3.2 percent decrease compared to the revised October rate of 992,000. The rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 472,000.
The housing market’s surprising performance in November indicates a mixed trajectory. While building permits faced a slight decline, housing starts showed robust growth, especially in the single-family segment. The market appears to be influenced by a variety of factors, and it will be essential to monitor these trends closely to determine the short-term direction.
In conclusion, the November 2023 housing report has delivered a blend of results, with building permits slightly lagging behind expectations, while housing starts exceeded them. These figures provide valuable insights into the current state of the housing market, which traders and investors should closely watch in the coming months.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.