The US dollar dipped slightly against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week with more of a “risk off” type of feel. Ultimately, I believe that the market probably continues to see a lot of noise more than anything else.
The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday to show signs of confusion and disarray as the ¥107 level has been broken. Ultimately, I think this is a marketplace that is going to see a lot of noise, but long-term I believe that the market is likely to favor the downside as the Japanese yen is considered to be a “safety currency.” To the downside, I would anticipate a move to the ¥105 level given enough time, but you should also pay attention to the fact that risk appetite is all over the place. With that being the case, it is likely that we will see a lot of back and forth as both of these currencies are considered a couple of the more routinely used safety currency.
If we break down below the ¥106.50 level, then the market is likely to go down to that ¥105 level that I mentioned previously. On the other hand, the market was to break above the ¥107 level, I will simply wait for some type of exhaustion that we can take advantage of in order to start shorting again. I do not have any interest in buying this pair, simply because although I do like the US dollar in general, it is probably going to do better against other currencies such as the Euro and the Pound. Ultimately, it is much easier to buy the US dollar against other currencies, so this is a “one-way trade”, especially if stock markets start to fall apart.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.