USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Tightening Up

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session showing certain amount of bullish pressure, but at this point in time it looks like the market is still trying to figure out where to go next. The ¥104 level continues to be important, and therefore think it makes quite a bit of sense that it has become a bit of a “magnet for price.” The 103.70 level has been important recently, and if we can break down below there then it is likely that we go down towards the 103 and level, which opens up the door to the ¥102 level.

USD/JPY Video 09.12.20

Rallies at this point could see sellers above, with the 50 day EMA offering significant resistance, which of course is followed by the ¥105 level, and then the 200 day EMA. All things being equal, I think it is only a matter of time before we see sellers jump in and push this market lower. It would take a major change of attitude for the market to break out and therefore I do not expect it to happen anytime soon. We have been in a major downtrend and for good reason as the US dollar has lost its luster.

Having said that, if the market suddenly start looking for safety, we may have further downward pressure as people will look towards the safety of the Japanese yen. Either way, I have no interest in buying this pair, but I do recognize that we may get a bit of a pop higher in the short term. After all, the US dollar is a bit oversold overall, and that could be felt in this market as well.

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